Monthly Archives: May 2021

Tropical Depression One-E Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Depression One-E formed southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system formerly called Invest 90E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E. The circulation around the depression was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the depression began to generate more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from it. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for develop of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. The tropical depression will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression One-E is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach the depression from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause the depression to weaken early next week.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Depression One-E will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression One-E will remain south of Baja California.

Tropical Development Possible Southwest of Mexico

Development of a tropical cyclone southwest of Mexico is possible during the next few days. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Invest 90E was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 102.5°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. The Invest was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

An area of low pressure, currently designated as Invest 90E, exhibited more organization on Friday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook for the low pressure system. NHC indicated that there was a 40% probability that the system would develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 48 hours and a 60% chance that development would occur during the next five days.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Invest 90E. Bands of showers and thunderstorms also developed and the bands began to revolve around the center of the low pressure system. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the system.

Invest 90E will move through an environment favorable for develop of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. The low pressure system will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Invest 90E is likely to develop into a tropical depression and it could quickly intensify into a tropical storm.

Invest 90E will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Invest slowly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the low pressure system will remain southwest of Mexico during the weekend.