It appears from satellite imagery that vertical wind shear quickly weakened Hurricane Carlos on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 104.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Carlos was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Punta San Telmo, Mexico and a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

After intensifying on Tuesday afternoon and exhibiting well developed upper level divergence, the structure of Hurricane Carlos degenerated quickly on Tuesday night.  Most of the strong thunderstorms dissipated.  Satellite imagery showed an exposed low level center near the Mexican coast, while the upper level canopy was moving westward away from the low level center.  The decoupling of the upper and low parts of the circulation, usually leads to quick weakening of a hurricane.  The small size of Carlos could allow it to weaken even more quickly than an average hurricane.  The most recent satellite images showed a few thunderstorms forming south of the center of circulation.  However, wind shear caused by an upper level ridge north of Carlos may be too strong to allow for the system to regain its vertical integrity.  Tropical cyclones that are sheared apart sometimes have one chance to redevelop.  The low level center is moving closer to the coast of Mexico and interaction with land may prevent any chance for redevelopment.

If the low level center remains separated from the rest of the system and it does not extend higher into the atmosphere, it will be steered by the winds in the lower levels.  Those winds appear to be taking it north-northwest toward the coast.  Carlos could dissipate quickly if it makes landfall, or the circulation could linger for a day or two if it stays farther offshore.