Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Windward Islands on Wednesday afternoon because of the forecast intensification of a tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center changed the designation of the tropical wave from Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five when it began issuing advisories on the system. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 43.7°W which put it about 1195 miles (1920 km) east of the Windward Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, St. Lucia and Martinique.

A tropical wave east of the Windward Islands exhibited more organization on Wednesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five in order to be able to issue Tropical Storm Watches for several of the Windward Islands. The center of the tropical wave continued to be elongated. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing around the elongated center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave. The strongest upper level divergence was to the west of the wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is forecast to develop into a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer the tropical wave toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Windward Islands on Friday morning. It is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Windward Islands.