Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.1°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy weakened to the equivalent of a tropical depression during its passage across Madagascar. The former eye and eyewall dissipated during the trip across Madagascar. New thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Freddy’s circulation after the center moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the tropical cyclone again.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique in a little over 24 hours. The center of Freddy could make landfall between Vilankulo and Mambone near Macovane. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala developed south of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 72.9°E which put it about 605 miles (975 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.