Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 77.5°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dudzai was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened on Tuesday. Dudzai continued to move slowly over cooler water its winds had mixed to the surface of the ocean. The cooler water contained less energy. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened because it was extracting less energy from the ocean.
Even though Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened, its structure remained intact. There was a very small circular eye at the center of Dudzai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation. Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure was increasing.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.7. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hannah when Hannah hit Texas in 2020.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. In addition, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will continue to mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean. The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northeastern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.