Tropical Cyclone Dudzai strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 78.0°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to intensify on Monday afternoon. Dudzai strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation. Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.6. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017. Dudzai is slightly smaller than Harvey was.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean. The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 hours. Dudzai is likely to move slowly toward the south during that time period. A high pressure system that is southwest of Dudzai will start to steer it toward the west on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.