Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was approaching Rodrigues on Saturday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 66.1°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues. Dudzai was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to weaken on Saturday, although Dudzai’s intensity appeared to have stabilized on Saturday evening. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation. Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone. However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere for much of Saturday. So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Saturday. The removal of mass seemed to be moving back into equilibrium with the convergence of mass in the lower levels on Saturday evening.
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.
Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai could intensify a little on Sunday.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest on during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will pass near Rodrigues in 18 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.