Tropical Cyclone Gezani was strengthening on Monday morning as it moved toward the east coast of Madagascar. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 53.4°E which put the center about 365 miles (585 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Gezani was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Gezani was strengthening on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gezani’s circulation. A small circular eye was forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Gezani’s circulation. Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gezani will intensify during the next 24 hours. Gezani could intensify rapidly. Tropical Cyclone Gezani will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in the next few hours.
Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will reach the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it hits the east coast of Madagascar. Gezani will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Gezani could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina.