Tropical Cyclone Gezani moved toward southern Madagascar on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 25.8°S and longitude 41.3°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Gezani was moving toward the east-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.
Tropical Storm Gezani did not change much on Sunday. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Gezani’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani. Storms near the center of Gezani generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass in the upper levels almost exactly the same as the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure was relatively constant on Sunday.
The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani expanded a little on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Gezani. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the other quadrants of Gezani.
Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is east of South Africa. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gezani’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gezani will weaken during the next 24 hours because of the moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will cause Gezani to continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday.
The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the east during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move closer to southern Madagascar during the next 12 hours. A high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean is forecast to start to steer Tropical Cyclone Gezani toward the south on Monday before Gezani reaches southern Madagascar.