Tropical Storm Saudel formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of Chuuk on Wednesday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 8.9°N and longitude 153.9°E which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) northeast of Chuuk. Saudel was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.
A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of Chuuk strengthened on Tuesday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Saudel.
The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Saudel was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Saudel’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Saudel consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Saudel was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Saudel’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles in the northern side of Tropical Storm Saudel.
Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is east of the Marianas. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Saudel’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Saudel will intensify during the next 24 hours. Saudel is forecast to strengthen to a typhoon later this week.
Tropical Storm Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Saudel will pass north of Chuuk. Saudel will be near the Northern Marianas in three days.