Tropical Cyclone Agueda formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Seychelles on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Agueda was located at latitude 5.2°S and longitude 52.5°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) west of the Seychelles.  Agueda was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Seychelles strengthened on Tuesday and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Agueda.

Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Cyclone Agueda.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Agueda’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Agueda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Agueda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Agueda was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Agueda’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Agueda will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Agueda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Agueda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Agueda could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Agueda will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Agueda toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Agueda will pass north of Madagascar later this week.