Tropical Cyclone Agueda passed north of Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Agueda was located at latitude 6.1°S and longitude 50.7°E which put the center about 400 miles (645 km) north of Antsiranana, Madagascar.  Agueda was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Agueda strengthened on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Agueda’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving  around the center of Tropical Cyclone Agueda.  Storms near the center of Agueda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Agueda was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Agueda’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Agueda will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Agueda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Agueda will move into a region of drier air on Thursday.  Tropical Cyclone Agueda is likely to weaken when it moves into the region of drier air.

Tropical Cyclone Agueda will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Agueda toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Agueda will move northwest of Madagascar on Thursday.