Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido Nears Northern Madagascar

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido was nearing northern end of Madagascar on Thursday evening.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 51.7°E which put the center about 185 miles (295 km) east-northeast of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido was maintaining its intensity as it approached northern Madagascar on Thursday evening.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to  balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to start to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.  Chido is larger than Charley was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could weaken slowly during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels continues to exceed the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Chido will also weaken of the core of its circulation moves over northern Madagacar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will pass near the northern end of Madagascar in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.  Chido could cause major damage if the eyewall moves over the northern end of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Rapidly Intensifies to Threshold of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar during Wednesday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 54.0°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during Wednesday night.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido increased as Chido rapidly intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.5.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian made landfall in southwest Florida in 2022.  Chido is not quite as large as Ian was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.4°S and longitude 56.3°E which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday afternoon.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.3.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.5°S and longitude 57.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Chido’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Chido’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.2.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly made landfall in south Texas in 2008.  Chido is smaller than Dolly was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Chido could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Intensifies

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 59.3°E which put the center about 680 miles (1095 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Chido’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the center of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chido became more symmetrical on Tuesday when Chido strengthened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chido’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Chido is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will approach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Forms East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Chido formed over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 62.1°E which put the center about 870 miles (1405 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar strengthened on Monday and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Chido.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Chido was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Chido’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Chido consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms in the western side of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chido was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Chido’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Chido were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chido’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  Chido could approach northern Madagascar by the end of this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal Drops Heavy Rain on Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Fengal dropped heavy rain on parts of southern India on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 79.8°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south-southwest of Chennai, India.  Fengal was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal was dropping heavy rain on Sunday as it moved slowly inland over southern India.  Heavy rain was falling in the east central and northeastern parts of Tamil Nadu.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal was weakening gradually as it moved slowly inland over southern India.  The strongest winds were occurring in the part of Fengal’s circulation that were still over the Bay of Bengal.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal.  The winds in the parts of Fengal’s circulation that were over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over eastern and southern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Fengal toward the west during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fengal will continue to move slowly across southern.  Fengal could move over the Arabian Sea in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over southern India.  Fengal will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of Tamil Nadu during the next 24 hours.   Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal Brings Wind and Rain to Southeastern India

Tropical Cyclone Fengal brought wind and rain to southeastern India on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 80.5°E which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south of Chennai, India.  Fengal was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal made landfall on the coast of southeastern India between Chennai and Puducherry on Saturday.  Fengal was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over eastern and southern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Fengal toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move across southern India during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tamil Nadu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Fengal could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Tamil Nadu.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn Weakens Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Robyn weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Robyn was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 94.5°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Robyn was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The western end of an upper level ridge that was west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Robyn.  Those strong winds created strong vertical wind shear.  The strong northwesterly winds also blew the tops off of all of the thunderstorms in Robyn’s circulation.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Robyn consisted entirely of bands of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Robyn was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Robyn’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move through an environment that will continue to be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Robyn will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The western end of the upper level ridge that is west of Australia will continue produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Robyn’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of strong vertical wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Robyn to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is west of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Robyn toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Robyn will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal Forms Over Southwestern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Fengal formed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Friday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 82.2°E which put the center about 165 miles (270 km) east-southeast of the Puducherry, India. Fengal was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

A low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal strengthened during Thursday night and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fengal.  Thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fengal.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Fengal’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fengal generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengal will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from India across the southern Bay of Bengal.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fengal is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over eastern and southern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Fengal toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fengal will approach the coast of southeastern India near Puducherry in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fengal will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tamil Nadu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Fengal could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Tamil Nadu.