Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.5°S and longitude 57.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar. Chido was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Chido intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday morning. A small circular eye formed at the center of Chido’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido. Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Chido. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Chido’s circulation.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.2. Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly made landfall in south Texas in 2008. Chido is smaller than Dolly was.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours. Chido could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Chido could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar. The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar. Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.