Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar during Wednesday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 54.0°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar. Chido was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during Wednesday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido. Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.
The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido increased as Chido rapidly intensified. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.5. Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian made landfall in southwest Florida in 2022. Chido is not quite as large as Ian was.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar. The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar in 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar. Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.