Tag Archives: Iwo To

Krovanh Becomes a Typhoon Southeast of Iwo To

Krovanh continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday and it reached typhoon status.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Krovanh was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 144.5°E which put it about 330 miles (530 km) southeast of Iwo To.  Krovanh was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Typhoon Krovanh remains in a very favorable environment.  It is over water with warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  The absence of significant vertical wind shear has allowed upper level divergence to continue to pump away mass in all directions.  The structure of the inner core of Krovanh improved as it intensified and the typhoon now has a well developed eye surrounded by a nearly complete eyewall.  The favorable environment could allow Krovanh to intensify for another 24 to 36 hours.  When the typhoon begins to approach latitude 30°N, it will begin to be affected by the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  The increased vertical wind shear will begin to weaken Krovanh.

Typhoon Krovanh is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge should steer Krovanh toward the northwest for another 24 hours.  When it reaches the western end of the ridge, the typhoon will start moving toward the north.  As the upper level westerly winds start to affect Krovanh, those winds will accelerate it toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Krovanh could be approaching Iwo To in about 24 hours and it could be near Chichi Jima in about 36 hours.  Krovanh could be a strong typhoon when it passes those islands.

Tropical Storm Krovanh Organizing Quickly Near Northern Marianas

The circulation around Tropical Storm Krovanh is organizing quickly as it passes near the northern Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Krovanh was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 148.1°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east-northeast of Agrihan in the northern Mariana Islands.  Krovanh was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan in the northern Marianas.

The circulation near the center of Krovanh organized quickly on Tuesday.  A primary spiral rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center and an eyelike feature has appeared intermittently on visible satellite imagery.  Additional rainbands are developing around the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the core of the tropical storm are producing upper level outflow in all directions which is pumping out mass and is allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Krovanh is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Upper levels winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  The environment is very favorable for further intensification and rapid intensification is likely.  Krovanh could become a typhoon within 24 hours and it could be a strong typhoon within several days.

A subtropical ridge located northeast of Krovanh is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest.  That general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.  After that time Krovanh will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Krovanh will pass through the extreme northern Marianas on Wednesday and it be approaching Iwo To in about 48 hours.  Krovanh could be a strong typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Atsani Reaches Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Atsani intensified over the past 24 hours and it is now the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Atsani was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 151.3°E which put it about 1340 miles (2160 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Atsani was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Atsani is in an environment that is very favorable for tropical cyclones.  The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions and Atsani has a very circular appearance with a large eye evident on satellite imagery.  There are more rainbands and thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation which is probably the result of warmer, moister air in area.

Atsani could maintain its current intensity for another 24 hours or so, although an eyewall replacement cycle will cause weakening if one occurs.  In another day or two the typhoon will start to move over cooler SSTs.  In addition as Atsani moves northward, it will start to be affected by the upper level westerlies in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will increase wind shear and weaken Atsani further.

Atsani is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another couple of days.  When Atsani reaches the western end of the ridge it will start moving toward the north.  Eventually, the upper level westerly winds will accelerate Atsani off to the northeast.  On its anticipated track Atsani would pass north of the Marianas and northeast of Iwo To.  At the current time the center of Atsani is forecast to pass about 100 miles east of ChiChi Jima.  However, a slight deviation of the track toward the west could bring Atsani closer to Chichi JIma and Iwo To.

 

Typhoon Dolphin Is Bringing Wind and Heavy Rain to Iwo To

Even though the center of Typhoon Dolphin is still over 100 miles from Iwo To, it is bringing wind and heavy rain to that island.  The most recent surface observation reported southeast winds at 43 m.p.h. with gusts to 66 m.p.h.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located near latitude 24.6° and longitude 139.7°E which put it about 140 miles west-southwest of Iwo To.  Dolphin was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 105 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Dolphin will continue to move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures as it moves farther north.  It will also encounter strong upper level westerly winds, which will increase vertical wind shear.  So, Typhoon Dolphin will weaken steadily on Tuesday.  It will eventually transition into an extratropical cyclone as it passes southeast of Japan.

Upper level westerly winds are steering Typhoon Dolphin toward the northeast.  It is expected to accelerate toward the northeast on Tuesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Dolphin will pass northwest of Iwo To during the next few hours.  It could pass very near Chichi Jima on Tuesday and bring strong wind and heavy rain.

Typhoon Dolphin Approaching Iwo To

Although Typhoon Dolphin is weakening, it will still be a typhoon when it approaches Iwo To in about 24 hours.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 138.7°E which put it about 320 miles south-southwest of Iwo To.  Dolphin was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 155 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Upper level westerly winds blowing over the top of Dolphin are tilting the circulation to the east and contributing to the weakening of the typhoon.  Dolphin will soon be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is lower than 26°C and as it moves farther north it will encounter stronger upper level westerly winds.  Cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will continue to weaken Dolphin.  As it moves into a cooler environment southeast of Japan in several days, Dolphin will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Dolphin is moving around the the western end of a subtropical ridge.  It will gradually turn more toward the northeast on Monday.  As it encounters stronger westerly winds, Dolphin will start to move more rapidly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track, Dolphin will near Iwo To in about 24 hours.  Although it will be weaker, it will still be a typhoon at that time.

 

Typhoon Dolphin Becomes Equivalent of Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Dolphin intensified rapidly on Saturday and it reached an intensity equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 139.0E which put it about 470 miles south-southwest of Iwo To.  Dolphin was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 195 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Dolphin is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are between 26°C and 27°C.  It is in an area where the upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  It has very well developed upper level outflow, especially on the northeast side of the circulation.  Dolphin developed concentric eyewalls earlier on Saturday, but the inner eyewall appears to have dissipated.  The circulation has consolidated around the outer eyewall and it is now the core of the circulation.  Dolphin is probably near its peak intensity.  As it moves farther north, the SSTs will decrease and it will move over water cooler than 26°C.    In addition, upper level westerly winds will increase as the typhoon moves north of 25°N.  Cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will produce a steady weakening of Dolphin as it moves north.

Dolphin is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  It is likely to move northward on Sunday and then turn to the northeast on Monday.  As it encounters westerly winds early next week, it is likely to accelerate toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Dolphin will approach Iwo To in about 48 hours.  It could still be a significant typhoon at that time.

 

Typhoon Dolphin Hits Guam and Rota

The core of Typhoon Dolphin moved over Guam and Rota on Friday.  Andersen Air Force Base reported northwesterly winds at 75 m.p.h. with gusts to 106 m.p.h. in one of its hourly observations.  The base also reported a Peak Wind of 86 knots (100 m.p.h.) in another observation.  The international airport on Guam reported a Peak Wind of 70 knots (80 m.p.h.).  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 143.0°E which put it about 120 miles northwest of Guam.  Dolphin was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 155 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin is intensifying rapidly.  It is over water there the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C and the upper level winds are light.  It has a well formed eye and thunderstorms around the center are pumping out mass.  Upper level divergence is occurring and their are outflow channels to the northeast and southwest.  Dolphin could continue to intensify rapidly for another 24 hours.

Dolphin is near the western end of a subtropical ridge and it should gradually turn toward the north and then the northeast.  Its anticipated track will take it farther away from Guam, but it could approach Iwo To in about 72 hours as a significant typhoon.