Tag Archives: 02A

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Moves Slowly North over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy moved slowly toward the north over the Arabian Sea on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 66.9°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was asymmetrical on Friday morning. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Biparjoy and in bands in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. bands in the northern half of Biparjoy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There appeared to be some drier air in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in that part of Biparjoy. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of the circulation. In addition, Biparjoy has been moving slowly and the wind could mix cooler water to the surface of the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could strengthen during the next 24 hours unless the mixing of cooler water to the surface lowers the Sea Surface Temperature under the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Churns over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was churning over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 66.2°E which put it about 670 miles (1085 km) southeast of Masirah Island. Biparjoy was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy churned slowly northward over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out25 miles (40 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 66.3°E which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) southeast of Masirah Island. Biparjoy was moving toward the northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy rapidly intensified over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Biprarjoy. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Biparjoy could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Arabian Sea

A tropical cyclone formed over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 66.0°E which put it about 755 miles (1220 km) southeast of Masirah Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the north at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A low pressure system over the Arabian Sea strengthened quickly into Tropical Cyclone 02A during Monday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped part way around the center of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 02A will intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 02A will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Nisagra Makes Landfall South of Mumbai

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga made landfall south of Mumbai, India on Wednesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday night before it made landfall on the west coast of India.  An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of Nisarga.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga brought winds to hurricane/typhoon force to a portion of the west coast of India south of Mumbai.  Those winds would have pushed water toward the coast.  The would have generated a storms surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near where the center of Nisarga made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Nears Mumbai

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga neared  Mumbai, India on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga strengthened quickly on Tuesday night as it moved closer to the west coast of India.  An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nisarga.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will make landfall on the west coast of India south of Mumbai in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will continue to intensify until it makes landfall.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Nisarga.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring strong winds to the west coast of India.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and they could cause a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near Mumbai and near where the center makes landfall.  Nisarga will also drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Develops West of India

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga developed west of India on Tuesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 16.0° and longitude 71.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Arabian Sea west of India strengthened on Tuesday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nisarga.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Nisarga.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Nisagra.  Nisagra could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the north during the next 12 hours.  Nisarga will move more toward the north-northeast when it moves around the northwestern part of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nisarga could approach Mumbai in about 24 hours.  Nisarga could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mumbai.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mumbai on Wednesday.  Nisarga could also cause a storm surge of  3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in the area around Mumbai where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra and southern Gujarat.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Weakens South of Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone Vayu weakened over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 65.3°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.  Vayu was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The low level circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vayu remained well organized on Saturday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the southern half of the former eyewall and in several rainbands in the southern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the remaining portion of the eyewall.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vayu continued to draw drier air into the northern half of the tropical cyclone on Saturday.  An upper level ridge north of Vayu was producing strong northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier air and wind shear were the primary factors causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Even though Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, the combined effects of the drier air and the wind shear are likely to cause the tropical cyclone to continue to weaken on Sunday.  If the upper level winds get stronger, they could blow the upper half of the circulation southwest of the lower part of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  In that case Vayu will weaken more quickly.

The future track of Tropical Cyclone Vayu will also depend on the vertical wind shear.  If the wind shear is not too strong and the circulation remains vertically intact, then the ridge north of Vayu will steer the tropical cyclone slowly toward the northwest on Sunday.  If the upper level winds blow the upper half of the circulation away from the lower portion of Tropical Cyclone Vayu, then southwesterly winds in the lower atmosphere will blow the shallower system toward the northeast.  Guidance from numerical models suggest this second scenario is more likely and the anticipated track takes Tropical Cyclone Vayu toward the northeast.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Stalls, Weakens Southwest of Gujarat

Tropical Storm Vayu stalled and weakened southwest of Gujarat on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 67.4°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) southwest of Dwarka, India.  Vayu was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The structure of the inner core of Tropical Cyclone Vayu changed significantly on Friday.  The previous small eye disappeared and a large new eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Vayu.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The strongest rainbands were located in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The environment around Tropical Cyclone Vayu will become less favorable for a tropical cyclone on Saturday.  An upper level ridge north of Vayu will strengthen.  The ridge will produce stronger northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu will also continue to pull drier air into the northern half of the circulation.  Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vayu will be over very warm water, the combined effects of stronger wind shear and drier air are likely to cause it to weaken on Saturday.

The ridge north of Vayu will block the tropical cyclone from moving toward the north on Saturday.  The ridge is likely to continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Vayu slowly toward the west over the northeastern Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Vayu will move farther away from Gujarat and Pakistan on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Turns West Over Northeast Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Vayu turned west over the northeastern Arabian Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 68.4°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southwest of Porbandar, India.  Vayu was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu maintained its intensity on Thursday, but the circulation exhibited slightly less organization.  A small eye continued to mark the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye, but there was a break in the northeastern portion of the ring.  The circulation continued to pull drier air into the northern part of the tropical cyclone.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Rainbands in the northern half of the circulation were weaker.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will continue to move through an environment capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone on Friday.  Vayu will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the northeastern Arabian Sea is near 30°C.  However, Tropical Cyclone Vayu moved slowly on Thursday and it may have stirred some cooler water to the surface.  In addition, the circulation around Vayu will continue to draw in drier air from over south Asia.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu could start to weaken slowly on Friday, although it could maintain its intensity if it moves away from the upwelled cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will be south of a strengthening ridge of high pressure over south Asia.  The ridge will block Vayu and prevent it from moving farther toward the north.  The ridge will steer Vayu slowly toward the west during the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vayu will remain southwest of Gujarat and south of Pakistan during the next two days.