Tag Archives: 02B

Stronger Tropical Cyclone Mora Near Landfall in Bangladesh

A stronger Tropical Cyclone Mora neared landfall between Cox’s Bazar and Chittagong, Bangladesh.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mora was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 91.9°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Mora was moving toward the north at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Mora was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Mora organized quickly on Monday.  The primary rainband wrapped entirely around the center of circulation and an eye formed.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core Tropical Cyclone Mora.  Thunderstorms near the core of Mora generated strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  The decrease of pressure caused the surface winds to increase to hurricane/typhoon intensity.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon strength extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The strongest winds were occurring in the eyewall and over the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Mora is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering Mora toward the north and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 18 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Mora will move near the coast of Bangladesh between Cox’s Bazar and Chittagong.  The center is likely to make landfall near Chittagong during the next few hours.

The recent intensification of Tropical Cyclone Mora has made it a more dangerous storm.  The increased wind speed will increase the potential for wind damage.  In addition, stronger winds will increase the height of the storm surge along the coast.  A storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) will be possible along the coast between Cox’s Bazar and Chittagong.  The increase in organization of the core has also created the potential for heavier rain and greater fresh water flooding of rivers and streams.

Tropical Cyclone Mora will start to weaken after the center makes landfall.  However, it will continue to generate areas of heavy rain while it moves inland over Bangladesh and northeastern India.

 

Tropical Cyclone Mora Intensifies As It Nears Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Mora intensified on Sunday as it moved closer to Bangladesh.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mora was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 90.9°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km/h) south of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Mora was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Mora exhibited more organization on Sunday.  A primary rainband wrapped about two thirds of the way around northern and western sides of the circulation.  A tighter center of circulation was evident at the core of Tropical Cyclone Mora.  There were few thunderstorms east of the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms in the primary rainband were generating more upper level divergence which was pumping out mass to the west and north of the tropical cyclone.  The divergence was causing the surface pressure to decrease and was contributing the increase in wind speed.

Tropical Cyclone Mora will move through an environment that will be favorable for additional strengthening during the next 24 hours.  Mora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of Mora is generating easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The easterly winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably responsible for the location of the primary rainband north and west of the center of circulation.  The vertical shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not prevent Tropical Cyclone Mora from intensifying further.  Mora could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it makes landfall.

Mora was being steered toward the north by a subtropical ridge located to the east of the tropical cyclone.  A general northward motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mora will approach the coast of Bangladesh in 18 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mora could make landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Mora will bring gusty winds to Bangladesh and northwestern Myanmar.  It will produce locally heavy rain and create a risk for fresh water flooding.  Counterclockwise rotation will push water toward the coast and there could be a storm surge near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  The surge could increase the water level at the coast by 6 to 8 feet (2 to 3 meters).

Tropical Cyclone 02B Forms Over the Bay of Bengal

A surface circulation formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone 02B.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02B was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 88.9°E which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the north-northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low level center of circulation consolidated over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms in the inner part of the circulation developed west of the center.  There were some thunderstorms in outer bands northeast of the center, but there were few thunderstorms closer to the core of the circulation in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone.  The thunderstorms west of the center were producing upper level divergence which was pumping away mass to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 02B will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of the tropical cyclone is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are creating moderate vertical wind shear and the shear may be the reason why the thunderstorms were developing west of the center.  The shear will be strong enough to slow intensification, but it will not prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 02B will intensify during the next two days and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

A subtropical ridge located east of Tropical Cyclone 02B is steering it slowly toward the north-northeast.  A general north-northeasterly motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 02B could approach the coast of Bangladesh and northwestern Burma in about 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 02B could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by that time.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain when it makes landfall.  Heavy rain could cause fresh water flooding of rivers.  In addition the winds on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 02B will push water in the Bay of Bengal toward the coast.  A serious storm surge could occur along the coast east and near where the center makes landfall.