Tag Archives: SH17

Tropical Cyclone Filipo Brings Wind and Rain to Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Filipo brought wind and rain to Mozambique on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 35.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northeast of Machanga, Mozambique. Filipo was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo strengthened to near the threshold for a hurricane/typhoon as it approached the coast of Mozambique on Monday night. A small circular eye appeared intermittently on microwave satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) in the southern half of Filipo’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Filipo.

Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Filipo were bringing wind and rain to parts of eastern Mozambique on Monday night. The strongest winds and heaviest rain were occurring along the portion of the coast from Divinhe to Vilankulo. Heavy rain was falling near Machanga, Mambone and Macovane. A storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) was possible along the coast from Divinhe to Vilankulo.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Filipo toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move inland near Machanga and Mambone during the next few hours. The center of Filipo’s circulation will pass west of Inhambane and Maputo. Tropical Cyclone Filipo will weaken gradually when it moves inland. However, Filipo will continue to cause strong winds and to drop locally heavy rain over eastern Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo Strengthens Near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Filipo strengthened as it near the coast of Mozambique on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 37.0°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Beira, Mozambique. Filipo was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo strengthened over the Mozambique Channel as it approached the coast of Mozambique on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Filipo’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Filipo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Filipo will intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Filipo toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Filipo will approach the coast of Mozambique in 12 hours. The center of Filipo’s circulation is likely to make landfall between Divinhe and Vilankulo. Tropical Cyclone Filipo will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Filipo could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo Forms Over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Filipo formed over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 38.2°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east of Beira, Mozambique. Filipo was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Filipo. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Filipo exhibited more organization on Sunday. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern part of Filipo’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands in the western part of Filipo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. The winds in the western side of Filipo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Filipo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the upper level ridge. Tropical Cyclone Filipo will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Filipo toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Filipo will approach the coast of Mozambique in 24 hours The center of Filipo’s circulation is likely to make landfall between Beira and Inhambane. Tropical Cyclone Filipo will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Filipo could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Weakens Southeast of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Herman weakened over the South Indian Ocean southeast of the Cocos Islands on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 106.7°E which put it about 865 miles (1395 km) southeast of the Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herman weakened on Saturday. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Herman’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken. An eye was no longer evident on satellite images of Herman. The inner end of a rainband still wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Herman’s circulation. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herman was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Herman. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. However, the upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation. Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken. Since Herman’s circulation is small, the tropical cyclone could weaken rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move north of high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Herman toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Herman will remain far to the south of the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Herman strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia during Thursday night. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 106.8°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herman strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean during Thursday night. A small circular eye was present at the center of Herman’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herman was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Herman. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Herman was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.2. Tropical Cyclone Herman was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis made landfall in northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Herman from the west. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will get stronger during the next 24 hours. Those stronger winds will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken. Since Herman’s circulation is small, the tropical cyclone could weaken rapidly when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move farther away from Cocos Islands. When the stronger vertical wind shear causes Herman to weaken, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Herman rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 106.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herman rapidly intensified to nearly the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Herman’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herman was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Herman. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Herman was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.6. Tropical Cyclone Herman was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta made landfall in Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Herman from the west. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will get stronger during the next 24 hours. Those stronger winds will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move farther away from Cocos Islands. When the stronger vertical wind shear causes Herman to weaken, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Strengthens Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Herman strengthened over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia during Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 105.1°E which put it about 570 miles (920 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herman strengthened over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia during the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Herman’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Herman’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Herman from the west. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will get stronger during the next 24 hours. Those stronger winds will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move farther away from Cocos Islands. When the stronger vertical wind shear causes Herman to weaken, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the end of the week and the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Forms Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Herman formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 13.9°S and longitude 101.5°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

An area of low pressure over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Cocos Islands strengthened on Wednesday morning and the the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Herman. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Herman’s circulation. The strongest winds were occurring in the part of the band west of the center. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Herman’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Herman is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough will approach Herman from the west on Thursday. The trough will cause the upper level winds to get stronger and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the eastern South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Herman toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move away from Cocos Islands. When Herman weakens later this week, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the end of the week and the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas Brushes New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Lucas brushed New Caledonia on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 167.0°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern New Caledonia on Tuesday night. Lucas weakened before it reached New Caledonia. An upper level trough east of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Lucas. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they blew the tops off of thunderstorms around the center of Lucas. Drier air wrapped around the northern side of the tropical cyclone, which caused some of the outer rainbands to weaken as well. Tropical Cyclone Lucas was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it moved near southern New Caledonia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Lucas.

Since many of the stronger thunderstorms in the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lucas have weakened, the system will be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere. A high pressure system north of New Zealand will steer Lucas slowly toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Lucas will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern New Caledonia for another 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Lucas strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 163.1°E which put it about 495 miles (800 km) north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas intensified north of New Caledonia on Monday. A microwave satellite image showed a small eye forming at the center of Lucas. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the developing eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas. The strongest bands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Lucas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification. Lucas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. The vertical wind shear could be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone Lucas even though it will move over warm water.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system during the next 24 hours. That high pressure system will steer Lucas toward the southeast during the next day or so. A second high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Lucas more toward the south later on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Lucas could approach New Caledonia within 36 hours.