Tag Archives: Hawaii

Guillermo Intensifies Into a Hurricane

Guillermo intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours and it is now a hurricane.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Guillermo was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 134.8°W which put it about 1430 miles (2300 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Guillermo was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Guillermo moved through a very favorable environment of warm Sea Surface Temperatures and little vertical wind shear which allowed it to intensify rapidly from a tropical storm into a hurricane.  An eye was visible earlier today on satellite images, but it is either obscured or has filled with clouds on the most recent images.  The hurricane is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are light, but the rapid movement toward the west-northwest may be generating some vertical wind shear.  If Guillermo moves more slowly, it has about another 24 hours before it starts to move over cooler SSTs.  Once Guillermo gets west of longitude 140°W, it will gradually move over cooler SSTs.  As it moves farther north, it will also get closer to stronger upper level winds blowing from the west.  The combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear are likely to weaken Guillermo as it approaches Hawaii.

A subtropical ridge north of Guillermo is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest and that steering is likely to continue for several more days,  In a few days a trough approaching from the west will turn Guillermo toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Guillermo could approach Hawaii in about five days.  The higher probability is that a weaker Guillermo will move north of Hawaii, but the guidance from numerical models has been changing today.

Tropical Storm Guillermo Forms East- Southeast of Hawaii

An area of low pressure organized on Wednesday well east-southeast of Hawaii and it has been classified as Tropical Storm Guillermo.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located at latitude 8.5°N and longitude 126.3°W which put it about 2070 miles (3340 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and about 1475 miles (2370 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Guillermo was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Guillermo formed at an unusually low latitude over the eastern North Pacific.  It is over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 29°C.  The upper level winds are light over the circulation and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Guillermo will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two or three days and a period of rapid intensification will be possible when it nears hurricane intensity.  Guillermo will move over cooler SSTs when it gets closer to Hawaii and the wind shear may also increase.

A subtropical ridge north of Guillermo is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest and the ridge is expected to continue to steer the tropical storm toward the west-northwest during the next 48 to 72 hours.  Later in the weekend an upper level trough approaching from the west could turn Guillermo more toward the northwest.

Andres Strengthens Into a Category 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Andres turned westward and strengthened rapidly into a Major Hurricane on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Andres was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 119.2°W which put it about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Andres was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) which made Andres a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  There were gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.   Andres became only the fifth Major Hurricane to form over the Eastern North Pacific during the month of May.

By turning toward the west Hurricane Andres remained over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was 27°C.  The westward movement also minimized the vertical wind shear.  The combination of warm SST and little vertical wind shear produced rapid intensification.  Andres could remain over warm SSTs for another day or so.  Eventually it will encounter cooler water, which will be unable to supply enough energy to maintain its current intensity.  There are stronger upper level winds west of Andres and those will increase the vertical wind shear over the hurricane.  Cooler SSTs and more shear will weaken Andres during the coming week.

A strengthening ridge steered Andres toward the west on Sunday.  Another upper level trough will approach the ridge during the next few days.  The trough is likely to weaken the ridge and cause Andres to turn more northward again.  Track guidance from the numerical models diverges later in the week and the uncertainty increases at longer time periods.

Karina, Lowell and Marie

The atmosphere over the tropical Eastern North Pacific Ocean remains active with two hurricanes and a tropical storm.  Karina re-intensified into a hurricane about 1400 miles east of Hawaii.  It is moving slowly to the northeast as it is drawn into the large circulation around tropical storm Lowell.  Although the atmospheric conditions are allowing it to maintain hurricane force winds at the moment, it will encounter less favorable conditions as it moves farther north.

Tropical Storm Lowell is slowly spinning down about 1000 miles west of Baja California.  Lowell is moving slowly northwestward over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs).  The SSTs are cool enough that Lowell is only generating lower clouds and it has not produced any deep thunderstorms in recent hours.  Lowell could be reclassified as a non-tropical low later today or tomorrow.  Lowell has a large circulation and it will take it a few days to spin down completely.

Hurricane Marie is intensifying rapidly about 330 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  It currently has a maximum sustained wind speed of 85 m.p.h. and it could become a major hurricane during the next day or two.  Marie has a large well organized circulation and upper level divergence is well established over it.  It is expected to move northwestward parallel to the west coast of Mexico.  Marie is the 13th named tropical cyclone and 8th hurricane of the Eastern North Pacific 2014 season.