Tag Archives: 17E

Tropical Storm Paine Intensifying Quickly Southwest of Baja California

The Eastern North Pacific Ocean continues to spin out tropical cyclones.  Tropical Storm Paine intensified quickly on Sunday as it moved southwest of Baja California.  In 24 hours Paine intensified from a tropical depression to near hurricane strength.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 113.8°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km/h) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Paine was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Paine moved through a very favorable environment on Sunday.  The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was near 28°C.  The upper level winds were light and there was little vertical wind shear.  The favorable environmental conditions allowed a tight inner core to develop rapidly at the center of Tropical Storm Paine.  Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that an eye could be forming at the center of Paine.  A nearly complete ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the developing eye.  A primary rainband exists in the eastern part of the circulation.  Thunderstorms at the core of Tropical Storm Paine are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Paine will be in a favorable environment for another 12 to 18 hours.  It is likely to intensify into a hurricane on Monday.  After that time Paine will start to move over cooler SSTs and it should start to weaken.  The air over the cooler SSTs is also drier and more stable and Paine could weaken quickly on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Paine is moving around the western end of a ridge over Mexico which is steering it toward the northwest.  When Paine reaches the western end of the ridge axis, it will move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Paine will pass to the west of the southern end of Baja California during the next several days.

Recon Finds Marty a Hurricane, Mexico Issues Warnings

A reconnaissance plane investigated Marty on Monday afternoon and the data showed that Marty was a hurricane.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Marty was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 102.1°W which put it about 75 miles (125 km) south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Marty was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.

Although an upper level trough over Mexico has been producing southwesterly flow and causing moderate vertical wind shear over Marty, the vertical integrity of the circulation has been maintained.  So, instead of blowing the top off the circulation, the southwesterly winds have pushed the entire circulation toward the northeast.  As Marty moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 30°C, it extracted enough energy from the water to intensify into a hurricane.  The southwesterly winds inhibited upper level divergence on the western side of the circulation, but the upper level divergence east of Marty pumped out mass and the pressure decreased.

The environment is not favorable for much more intensification.  The upper level trough is expected to continue to cause vertical wind shear.  In addition, Marty is close enough to the coast of Mexico that the hurricane will begin to pull in some drier air from land.  Marty could intensify a little more, but it is likely to weaken on Tuesday.  If Marty makes landfall, it will weaken quickly.

The upper level trough is pushing Marty northeastward toward the coast of Mexico.  Unless the shear blows the upper part of the circulation away from the lower portion, it will continue to move toward the coast.  Marty could make landfall in 12 to 24 hours, which is why the government of Mexico issued warnings for the coast.  Hurricane Marty could bring strong winds and locally heavy rainfall when it moves inland.

Marty Intensifies and Mexico Issues a Tropical Storm Watch

Tropical Storm Marty intensified on Sunday and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the west coast.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 102.8°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Marty was moving toward the north-northeast at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

The structure of Tropical Storm Marty improved on Sunday morning.  A long rainband stretched around the southern and eastern sides of the circulation and more thunderstorms developed near the center or circulation.  Marty is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C, which means there is a lot of energy in the upper ocean.  However, an upper level trough extends from the western Gulf of Mexico across northern Mexico.  The upper level trough is causing westerly winds, which could already be producing vertical wind shear over the northern half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Marty.  Very warm SSTs mean that the potential for intensification exists, but the vertical wind shear will limit how much intensification actually occurs.  If the upper level winds get stronger, they could shear the top half of the circulation away from the bottom half and cause Marty to dissipate.

The upper level trough is beginning to steer Marty toward the north-northeast and the tropical storm is likely to move in that direction over the short term.  The ultimate track of Marty will be determined by the vertical integrity of the circulation and the strength of the vertical wind shear.  If the wind shear is not too strong and the upper and lower portions of the circulation remain together, then the trough will steer all of Marty toward the northeast.  In that case it could make landfall on the Mexican coast in several days.  However, if the vertical wind shear blows then top off of the circulation, then the upper level portion will move northeast toward Mexico, while the lower part of the tropical storm is left behind.  The upper half of the circulation could still bring heavy rain and the potential for floods to parts of Mexico, even if the surface circulation does not make landfall.