Tag Archives: EP15

Tropical Storm Newton Forms, Hurricane Warning Issued for Baja California

Tropical Storm Newton formed Sunday within a large area of thunderstorms west of Mexico.  Based on the forecast track and intensity the government of Mexico issued watches and warnings for parts of the west coast of Mexico and Baja California.  A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Santa Fe including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.  Hurricane Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from La Paz to San Evaristo and from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito and from Mazatlan to Huatabampito.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 105.7°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Newton was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Newton is still organizing.  There is a broad cyclonic rotation southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Clusters of thunderstorms may be spinning up smaller cyclonic circulations within the larger circulation.  Bands of thunderstorms are developing in the southern and eastern of the portions of the larger cyclonic circulation.  There is upper level divergence pumping mass out to the west of the center, but there is no apparent tight core at the center of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Newton is in an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over Mexico is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Newton,  The upper level winds are restricting the upper level divergence to the east of Newton,  but the vertical wind shear should not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  It is possible that some drier air from Mexico could be pulled into the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Newton is forecast to intensify on Monday.  The broad circulation could slow the rate of intensification until a distinct inner core forms.  Once a core develops, then Tropical Storm Newton could intensify more quickly and a period of rapid intensification may be possible.  Tropical Storm Newton could intensify into a hurricane before it reaches Baja California.

The ridge over Mexico is steering Newton toward the north-northwest and that motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  An upper level trough approaching the west coast of North America is expected to turn Tropical Storm Newton more toward the north as it nears the southern tip of Baja California.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Newton could be very near the southern tip of Baja California in about 36 hours.

Linda Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Linda rapidly intensified on Tuesday and it now has a wind speed that qualifies it as a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  This makes Linda the fifth major hurricane in the Eastern North Pacific in 2015.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Linda was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 113.9°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Linda was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Upper level winds over Linda decreased and the reduction in vertical wind shear allowed it to intensify rapidly during the past 12 hours.  A visible eye and symmetrical eyewall are evidence of a well organized inner core.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulation are generating upper level divergence in all directions which is pumping out mass and causing the pressure to decrease.  Linda could intensify for a few more hours, but it will start to move over much cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) later today.  It will be unable to extract enough energy from the cooler water to maintain its intensity and Linda will start to weaken.  As Linda moves farther north, it will also start to encounter stronger upper level winds around the southern portion of an upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S.  Increased vertical wind shear in addition to cooler SSTs will speed up the rate at which Linda weakens.  Since Linda has a large circulation, it could take longer for it to spin down.

An upper level ridge over Mexico is steering Linda toward the north-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue as long as it maintains tall thunderstorms.  When Linda weakens to a tropical storm over cooler water, the circulation will not extend as high in the atmosphere.  After that time Linda will be steered more toward the west by winds lower in the atmosphere.  On its anticipated track Linda will move parallel to the coast of Baja California for several days before turning away from the coast later this week.

Tropical Storm Linda Forms South of Baja California

A spiral band continued to wrap more tightly around the center of circulation inside a large low pressure system west of Mexico on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Linda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Linda was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation in Tropical Storm Linda is well organized.  There is one main spiral rainband and multiple outer rainbands.  Outside of the core of the circulation there are fewer thunderstorms east of the center, which could mean that some drier air is being pulled into that part of the storm.  Thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence.  Linda is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above 29°C.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. and an upper level ridge over northern Mexico are combining to create an outflow channel to the northeast, which is enhancing the flow of mass away from the tropical storm.  There is little vertical wind shear over the top of Linda and the environment is favorable for further intensification.  A period of rapid intensification is possible and Linda is likely to become a hurricane.  Eventually, when it moves farther north, Linda will move into an area of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear, which will cause it to weaken.

Linda appears to be moving a little more toward the west-northwest this afternoon.  The upper level ridge over northern Mexico is expected to steer it in a generally northwesterly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track, Linda would move west of Baja California during the middle of next week.