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Tropical Cyclone Bulbul Makes Landfall Southeast of Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul made landfall southeast of Kolkata, India on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kolkata, India.  Bulbul was movign toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul made landfall on the coast of West Bengal southeast of Kolkata, India on Saturday.  The India Meteorological Department’s weather radar in Kolkata indicated that the eye of Bulbul crossed the coast of West Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

The northern section of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul moved across the southeastern part of West Bengal and the southwestern portion of Bangladesh.  Thunderstorms in the eyewall were dropping heavy rain over those areas.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northeastern part of Bulbul were also dropping heavy rain over other parts of Bangladesh.  The heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.  Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul were pushing water toward the coast.  Bulbul could cause a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) in some coastal locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move around the northwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Bulbul toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move over coastal areas of Bangladesh between Dhaka and Chittagong.  Bulbul will weaken gradually as the center moves over land.  The wind speeds and storm surges will gradually decrease.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will continue to drop heavy rain over southern Bangladesh during the next 24 hours and the threat of fresh water floods will remain.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul Moving Toward Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul moved toward Kolkata, India on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 87.8°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Bulbul was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 k/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 861 mb.

It appeared that Tropical Cyclone Bulbul may have pulled drier air from India around the southern and eastern sides of its circulation.  Rainbands in those parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Microwave satellite images provided some evidence of an eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms around the eye exhibited weaker sections on the eastern side of the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Other strong bands of thunderstorms were present in the western half of the circulation.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.7.  Bulbul was capable of causing serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul may be near its maximum intensity.  Bulbul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper Bay of Bengal to support further intensification.  However, the introduction of drier air into the southern and eastern parts of the circulation will inhibit the development of thunderstorms in those portions of the tropical cyclone.  Bulbul will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will produce some vertical wind shear which will also inhibit further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul could weaken when it nears the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move around the western end of the ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Bulbul toward the north for another 18 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Bulbul could approach the coast of India south of Kolkata in about 18 hours.  Bulbul will turn more toward the east when it moves around the northwestern part of the ridge in a day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall in West Bengal south of Kolkata.  Bulbul will bring gusty winds to the coast of West Bengal and Bangladesh.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will be capable of generating a storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet ( 2 to 3 meters) along portions of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.  That area is particularly prone to storm surges.  Bulbul will drop locally heavy rain over parts of West Bengal and Bangladesh when it moves inland.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 87.5°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Bulbul was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bulbul exhibited greater organization on Thursday.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that an eye was forming at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms was developing around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul.  The strongest rainbands were in the northwestern half of Bulbul.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Bulbul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  There will be southerly winds at all levels and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will intensify during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The ridge over southeast Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Bulbul toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Bulbul could approach the area around Kolkata, India in less than 48 hours.  Bulbul could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast around the northern end of the Bayof Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul Strengthens over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul strengthened over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 89.9°E which put it about 520 miles (840 km) south of Kolkata, India.  Bulbul was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A low pressure system that was formerly designated at Tropical Storm Matmo when it was over the South China Sea moved across southeast Asia and over the Bay of Bengal during the past few days.  The low pressure system became nearly stationary west of the Andaman Islands.  More thunderstorms began to develop and bands began to form on Tuesday.  The low pressure system strengthened on Wednesday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Bulbul.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bulbul was still organizing on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms were developing around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bulbul.  The stronger rainbands were in the western half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Bulbul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Bulbul is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 to 48 hours.

The ridge over southeast Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Bulbul toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Bulbul will approach the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal in two or three days.  Bulbul could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere, a much weaker Tropical Cyclone Maha neared the west coast of India.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maha was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 70.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of Dui, India.  Maha was moving toward the east-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Maha will drop rain of southern Gujarat on Thursday.