Hurricane Melissa was bringing wind and rain to the Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 74.8°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) southeast of Clarence Town, Bahamas. Melissa was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Turks and Caicos.
The circulation around Hurricane Melissa showed signs of reorganization on Friday afternoon. However, passage over Jamaica and eastern Cuba significant changed the structure of the core of Melissa’s circulation. A new large eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Melissa. New thunderstorms were developing in a broken ring that surrounded the large eye. The strongest winds were occurring in that broken ring of storms. New thunderstorms were also forming in the bands revolving around the center of Melissa’s circulation.
The structural changes in the middle of Hurricane Melissa caused the size of the circulation to increase. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the western half of Hurricane Melissa.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 30.5. Hurricane Melissa is similar in intensity to Hurricane Beryl when Beryl hit Texas in 2024. Melissa is much larger than Beryl was.
Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Melissa could intensify during the next 12 hours. The upper level winds will get stronger on Thursday. More vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Melissa to weaken. The stronger wind shear will also cause Melissa to start a transition to an extratropical cyclone.
The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Melissa will continue to move over the Bahamas during the next few hours. Hurricane Melissa will be near Bermuda on Thursday night.
Hurricane Melissa will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Central and Southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday night. Melissa could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda on Thursday night.