Tropical Cyclone Montha formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Montha was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 85.2°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) east-southeast of Chennai, India.  Montha was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Montha.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Montha was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Montha’s circulation.  The bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Montha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Montha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southwestern part of Tropical Cyclone Montha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Montha’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Montha were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Montha will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Montha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Montha’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Montha could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Montha will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Southeast Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Montha toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Montha will move toward the east coast of India.