Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Quickly Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Cilida quickly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane north of Mauritius on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 58.0°E which put it about 410 miles (660 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida intensified quickly on Thursday.  A symmetrical, circular eye appeared more distinctly on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Storms near the core of Cilida generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speed increased in response to a larger pressure gradient force.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move through an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will get stronger during the next day or so unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Cilida to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge is likely to steer Cilida toward the southwest for another 12 hours or so.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  In 36 to 48 hours Cilida will begin to be affected by the westerly winds in the middle latitudes and those winds will start to steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast,  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cilida could approach Mauritius in about 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Kenanga weakened slowly well to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 80.2°E which put it about 825 miles (1330 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Forms North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Cilida formed north of Mauritius on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 59.8°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida organized quickly on Wednesday. A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A strong band of storms wrapped around the western and northern sides of Cilida.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cilida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Cilida is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday and it could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Cilida toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cilida could approach Mauritius from the north in about 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Kenanga drifted southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 81.9°E which put it about 910 miles (1470 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 82.6°E which put it about 920 miles (1485 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga intensified quickly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga.  Storms around the core of Kenanga were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga may be near its peak intensity.  Kenanga is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but it will start to move over slightly cooler water during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Kenanga is in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  However, Kenanga will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes later this week and the vertical wind shear will increase.  Tropical Cyclone Kenanga could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly during the next day or so.  Kenanga could weaken more quickly later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga will move south of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will continue to steer Kenanga toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kenanga will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone 07S developed north-northeast of Mauritius.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07S was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 60.8°E which put it about 690 miles (1115 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  It was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Gaja formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gaja was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 86.7°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) east of Chennai, India.  Gaja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An area of low pressure moving over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday and the India Meteorological Department classified the system as Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gaja is still organizing.  There is a distinct low level center of circulation.  A short band of thunderstorms is west and north of the center.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms are developing in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  One stronger band is east of the center of circulation and another stronger band is southeast of the center.  Storms near the center are beginning to generate upper level divergence which will pump mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Gaja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  The winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will intensify and it could be nearly equivalent to a hurricane/typhoon in two or three days.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Gaja in a generally west-southwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gaja will approach the coast of southern India in about 72 hours.  Gaja could be nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere, over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Alcide still was moving slowly east of the northern end of Madgascar and Tropical Cyclone Bouchra developed between Diego Garcia and Cocos Island.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 51.9°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Antisiranana, Madagascar.  Alcide was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bouchra was located at latitude 5.4°S and longitude 89.1°E which put it about 700 miles (1130 km) northwest of Cocos Island, Australia.  Bouchra was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide Stalls East of Madgascar

Tropical Cyclone Alcide stalled east of northern Madagascar on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 53.1°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Antisiranana, Madagascar.  Alcide was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide weakened during the past 36 hours.  An eye is no longer apparent on visible satellite images, although an eyelike feature persists on microwave satellite images.  There are breaks in the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force are occurring in the broken ring of storms.  Alcide moved very slowly during the past day or so.  Its slow movement may have allowed its winds to mix cooler water to the surface of the ocean.  If there is cooler water at the surface, then there is less energy available to support the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Alcide.  The circulation of Alcide remains relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide is in an area where the steering currents are weak.  Alcide could meander over the same area for another day or so.  If it remains over the same cooler water, then Alcide will slowly weaken further.  As the circulation gets weaker, thunderstorms will not rise as high into the atmosphere and Tropical Cyclone Alcide will be steered by winds at lower levels.  If Alcide eventually moves over warmer water, and the upper level winds are not too strong, then new thunderstorms could develop.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide is not forecast to move much during the next 24 hours.  In a day or so the winds in the lower and middle troposphere are forecast to begin to steer Alcide in a more westerly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Alcide could move closer to northern Madagascar on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Alcide rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 55.7°W which put it about 675 miles (975 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Alcide was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alcide organized rapidly during the past 24 hours.  An eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Alcide.  Storm near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alcide is relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide will move through an environment capable of supporting further intensification during the next 48 hours.  Alcide will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alcide could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next day or two.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Alcide in a west-southwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Alcide would stay north of Mauritius and La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Alcide could be east of northern Madagascar in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide Forms North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Alcide formed north of Mauritius on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 58.9°E which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Alcide was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A distinct center of circulation consolidated in an area of thunderstorms over the South Indian Ocean and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Alcide.  The circulation around Alcide was slowly becoming better organized.  The inner end of a band of thunderstorms was wrapping around the western side of the center of circulation.  Several other bands were developing south and west of the center.  Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the core of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Alcide will move through an environment that will support intensification.  Alcide will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C.  It will move around the northwestern side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will slow the rate of intensification, but the winds are not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alcide could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 48 to 72 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Alcide slowly toward the west-southwest during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Alcide could be northeast of Madagascar in a few days.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Fakir Brings Wind and Rain to Mauritius and La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Fakir brought wind and rain to Mauritius and La Reunion on Tuesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fakir was located at latitude 21.9°S and longitude 56.6°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fakir was moving toward the southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.  Fakir was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fakir passed between Mauritius and La Reunion on Tuesday and it brought gusty winds and heavy rain.  An eye formed at the center of circulation and a narrow ring of thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring south and east of the center of circulation.  The bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of light showers and low clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (270 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Fakir was capable of causing minor wind damage on Mauritius and La Reunion.  Fakir was also dropping heavy rain and the rain was likely to produce flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fakir was moving rapidly to the southeast.  So, conditions on Mauritius and La Reunion are likely to improve later on Tuesday when the core of Fakir moves away.  Fakir has peaked in intensity.  Although it is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C, Tropical Cyclone Fakir has moved under an area of strong upper level winds blowing from the northwest.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear, which will weaken Fakir.

Tropical Cyclone Fakir Strengthens Rapidly Northwest of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Fakir strengthened rapidly northwest of La Reunion on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fakir was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fakir was moving toward the southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A center of circulation developed early Monday in an area of thunderstorms east of Madagascar and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Fakir.  The circulation organized quickly and in a few hours Fakir strengthened into the equivalent of a strong tropical storm.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  There were some indications of the potential development of an eye at the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed south and east of the core of Tropical Cyclone Fakir.  Storms in the core of Fakir generated strong upper level divergence which pumped away mass to the southeast of the circulation.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly and the winds to increase in response to that decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fakir could remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  Fakir will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fakir is moving around the southwestern portion of an upper level ridge located over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge is producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but they were not strong enough to prevent Fakir from strengthening rapidly on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Fakir could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Fakir will move under stronger upper level winds in a day or so and then it will start to weaken because of the stronger vertical wind shear.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Fakir rapidly toward the southeast and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fakir will approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about 12 hours.  It could be nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.  Fakir will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion.  Minor wind damage is possible.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.  The most likely track takes the center of Tropical Cyclone Fakir between Mauritius and La Reunion.  The western side of the circulation is a little weaker than the eastern side is.  If Fakir follows that track, then the strongest wind and heaviest rain could affect Mauritius.  However, Fakir will also affect La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Stalls and Drops Heavy Rain on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim stalled over Madagascar on Friday night and it was dropping heavy rain on northern Madagascar.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 49.5°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Eliakim was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The strongest winds were occurring in rainbands over the Indian Ocean.  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The steering currents weakened on Friday as Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was rounding the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Indian Ocean.  Eliakim has moved little during the past 12 hours.  The center of circulation was over land close to the east coast of Madagascar near Mananara.  Since Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was nearly stationary, bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of Madagascar.  The heavy rain was creating the potential for serious flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

The subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen during the weekend.  When the ridge strengthens the steering currents will start to move Tropical Cyclone Eliakim toward the south.  On its anticipated track Eliakim is forecast to move almost straight southward near the east coast of Madagascar.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will drop heavy rain on parts of Madagascar for several more days and it could cause very serious flooding in some places.