Tag Archives: Martinique

Tammy Strengthens to a Hurricane East of the Lesser Antilles

Former Tropical Storm Tammy strengthened to a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 58.6°W which put it about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of Martinique. Tammy was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. Hurricane Watches were in effect for Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St. Baarthelemy. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Martinique and Barbados.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA planes flying in former Tropical Storm Tammy found that Tammy had intensified to a hurricane on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Tammy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Tammy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday morning.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Tammy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of the circulation.

Hurricane Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the far eastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Tammy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Tammy will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Tammy could be near Guadeloupe on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Tammy is likely to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the central and northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash in some locations. Hurricane Tammy could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Tropical Storm Tammy Strengthens East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Tammy strengthened east of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 55.1°W which put it about 465 miles (745 km) east of Guadeloupe. Tammy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius.

A NOAA research plane found that Tropical Storm Tammy had strengthened during Wednesday night. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tammy’s circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Tammy. Bands in the western side of Tammy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Tammy.

Tropical Storm Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the far eastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are blowing from the east. The difference in wind direction between the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Tammy could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Tammy will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Tammy could approach the central and northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

Tropical Storm Tammy is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the central and northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash in some locations. Tropical Storm Tammy could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Tropical Storm Tammy Forms East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Tammy formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 51.7°W which put it about 625 miles (1005 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tammy was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Tammy. The circulation around Tropical Storm Tammy was not well organized. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern part of Tammy’s circulation. Bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Tammy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Tammy’s circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Tammy. The winds in the other parts of Tammy were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the far eastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are blowing from the east. The difference in wind direction between the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Tammy could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if the winds in the lower levels weaken. However, if the winds in the lower levels get stronger, then Tammy could weaken to a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Tammy will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Tammy could be near Barbados in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Tammy is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados, Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bret Brings Wind and Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Bret brought gusty winds and rain to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) east of St. Vincent. Bret was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropical Storm Bret brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night. A weather station in St. Lucia reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). A weather station at Grantley Adams airport in Barbados reported a sustained wind speed of 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h).

The intensity of Tropical Storm Bret peaked on Thursday morning at close to hurricane intensity. After its intensity peaked in the morning, the portion of Bret’s circulation in the lower levels raced out ahead (to the west) of the parts of the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. The rapid movement of the circulation near the surface created strong vertical wind shear. The lower level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands the eastern part of Tropical Storm Brett. Those thunderstorms were occurring near the circulation center in the middle levels. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Bret’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwesterly winds in the upper level and the strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours. Bret could weaken to a tropical wave during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will move over the Caribbean Sea west of the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Bret will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines during the next few hours. Bands in the northern part of Bret’s circulation will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Martinique and Dominica. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Barbados will end on Friday when Tropical Storm Bret moves over the Caribbean Sea. .

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Four strengthened to Tropical Storm Cindy on Thursday evening halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 45.2°W which put it about 1110 miles (1785 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Nears Barbados

Tropical Storm Bret moved near Barbados on Thursday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 58.9°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) east-northeast of Barbados. Bret was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for St. Lucia.

The intensity of Tropical Storm Bret appeared to peak on Thursday morning. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Bret was close to hurricane intensity on Thursday morning. A microwave satellite image showed an eyelike feature in the middle levels of Tropical Storm Bret. After its intensity peaked in the morning, the portion of Bret’s circulation in the lower levels appeared to race out ahead (to the west) of the parts of the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere during Thursday. The rapid movement of the circulation near the surface was creating strong vertical wind shear. The lower level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands the eastern part of Tropical Storm Brett. Those thunderstorms were occurring near the circulation center in the middle levels.

The distribution of wind around Tropical Storm Bret remained asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Bret’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern part of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday afternoon. The center of Bret could pass close to St. Lucia on Thursday night. Tropical Storm Bret will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia. Bands in the northern part of Bret’s circulation will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Martinique and Dominica. Tropical Storm Bret could produce gusty winds and heavy rain over St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Four formed halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 42.9°W which put it about 1270 miles (2040 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Depression Four was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Strengthens

Tropical Storm Bret strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to the Lesser Antilles. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 53.9°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east of Barbados. Bret was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia and Martinique. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Barbados and Dominica.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying into Tropical Storm Bret on Wednesday afternoon found that Bret had strengthened. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Bret’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Bret. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The size of the circulation around Bret increased when it strengthened. The reconnaissance plane found that the strongest winds were occurring northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Bret. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Bret’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. There could be slightly stronger winds in the middle troposphere which could cause some vertical wind shear in those levels. Stronger wind shear in the middle troposphere could prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Bret during the next 24 hours. However, if the winds in the middle levels are not too strong, then Bret could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday afternoon. Bret could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica on Thursday night. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Prompts Watches for Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic and some of the Lesser Antilles on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 59.2°W which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east-southeast of Dominica. The potential tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the northern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches were also issued for Dominica, Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system east of the Lesser Antilles (formerly designated at Invest 94L) as Potential Tropical Storm Six on Monday afternoon in order to issue the Tropical Storm Watches. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Six exhibited more organization on Monday. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of the low pressure system. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass should allow the surface pressure to decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The low pressure system will move under a small upper level ridge near the Lesser Antilles. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six could develop into a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer the low pressure system toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move over the central Lesser Antilles on Monday night. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six could approach Puerto Rico later on Tuesday.

Elsa Strengthens to a Hurricane near Barbados

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened to a hurricane near Barbados on Friday morning. At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 60.1°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west of Barbados. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince, Haiti to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Martinique, the entire coast of Haiti, and for the coast from Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Grenada, Jamaica, Dominca, Saba and St. Eustatius.

A weather station on Barbados measured a sustained wind speed of 74 m.p.h. (119 km/h) and a wind gust to 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h) on Friday morning, and the National Hurricane Center upgraded former Tropical Storm Elsa to a hurricane. Despite moving toward the west-northwest very quickly, Elsa intensified rapidly during Thursday night. An eye appeared to be developing at the center of Hurricane Elsa on microwave satellite imagery. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that part of the hurricane.

The distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical in Hurricane Elsa. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern and southern side of Elsa. Bands in the northwestern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Elsa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Hurricane Elsa has strengthened in spite of the wind shear. Hurricane Elsa could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Elsa will pass near St. Lucia and St. Vincent in a few hours. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Hurricane Elsa will be near Hispaniola on Saturday. Elsa could pass near Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday. Hurricane Elsa could approach South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Tropical Storm Elsa Strengthens, Will Hit Windward Islands Friday

Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. Elsa was on course to hit the Windward Islands on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 55.9°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east-southeast of Barbados. Elsa was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Grenada and Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border from Haiti, and from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti.

Despite moving quickly toward the west-northwest, the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped partly around the northeastern portion of the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels will be stronger, which will generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it would weaken.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next two days. The high will steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday. Elsa could be near South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Tropical Storm Elsa Speeds Toward Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Elsa was speeding toward the Windward Islands on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 50.2°W which put it about 780 miles (1255 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Elsa was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe and Grenada.

The circulation in a tropical wave east-southeast of the Windward Islands exhibited a little more organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elsa. The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical storm. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A rainband appeared to be starting to wrap around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Despite the fact that the strongest thunderstorms were in the southern half of Elsa, the strongest winds were occurring north of the center of circulation. The pressure gradient between the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical storm was producing the most force to the north of the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get a little stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it could weaken back to a tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will reach the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico be early next week.