Tag Archives: Mexico

Hurricane Sergio Turns Back Toward Baja California

Hurricane Sergio turned back toward Baja California on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Sergio was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 127.4°W which put it about 1215 miles (1960 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sergio was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Hurricane Sergio was slowly weakening.  It appeared that cooler, drier air was entering the western half of the circulation.  Sergio has been moving slowly and its winds may have mixed some cooler water to the surface of the ocean.  Rainbands on the western side of Sergio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds and thunderstorms in western side of the eyewall were weakening.  Stronger thunderstorms were still occurring in the eastern side of the eyewall and that was where the strongest winds were occurring.  Some strong storms were also occurring in a band southeast of the center of circulation.

Hurricane Sergio will move through an environment that will cause it to continue to weaken slowly.  Sergio is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C, but it will move over cooler water in a day or so.  An upper level trough centered west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and more wind shear will cause Hurricane Sergio to weaken to a tropical storm within the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Sergio toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Sergio could approach central Baja California on Thursday night.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.  Tropical Storm Watches could be issued for parts of the coast later today or on Wednesday.  Sergio will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash flooding.  Sergio could also bring some rain to New Mexico and west Texas during the weekend.

Michael Strengthens Into a Hurricane, Watches Issued for Gulf Coast

Former Tropical Storm Michael strengthened into a hurricane on Monday morning and Watches were issued for portions of the Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 84.9°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of the western end of Cuba.  Michael was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Alabama-Mississippi border and from Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island, Florida.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cuban province of Isle of Youth and for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

Hurricane Michael continued to organize quickly.  A circular eye with a diameter of about 30 miles (50 km) was forming at the center of Michael.  A ring of strong thunderstorms was wrapping around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were wrapping around the core of Hurricane Michael.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) primarily to the northeast of the center of Hurricane Michael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Michael was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 17.2.

Hurricane Michael will move into an environment that will become increasingly favorable for intensification.  Michael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico was producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the upper level trough will move westward away from Hurricane Michael and the wind shear will decrease.  Hurricane Michael will continue to strengthen when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and it could intensify rapidly once the eye and eyewall are fully formed.  Hurricane Michael is likely to strengthen into a major hurricane.

Hurricane Michael will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system centered over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Michael in a northerly direction during the next several days.  It will get bigger and stronger during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Michael will approach the northeast coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  It is likely to be a major hurricane at that time.  Hurricane Michael has the potential to cause a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) at the coast.  It will bring strong winds which could cause regional major damage and result in significant power outages.  Locally heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Storm Michael Strengthens East of Yucatan

Tropical Storm Michael strengthened east of the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 85.4°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Michael was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Michael is still organizing and the distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  A new center of circulation formed on Sunday afternoon near those thunderstorms.  Many of the rainbands in the western half of Tropical Storm Michael contain primarily showers and lower clouds.  One outer rainband in the southwestern periphery of the circulation does contain numerous thunderstorms.  The strongest winds are occurring in the rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Michael.  The winds are weaker on the western side of the circulation.  Storms on the eastern side of Michael are generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm and was allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is producing westerly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Michael.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which was slowing the rate of intensification, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent Michael from strengthening.  The wind shear is probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The upper level trough will move westward during the next few days and the upper level winds will weaken.  Michael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is warmer than 30°C.  Tropical Storm Michael will strengthen slowly during the next 24 hours.  However, it will intensify more rapidly on Tuesday when the upper level winds weaken.  Michael will strengthen into a hurricane when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and it could intensify into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Michael has been moving slowly while the circulation organizes and the center reforms.  Michael will move around the southwestern part of the subtropical high pressure system over the western North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Michael in a northward direction during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Michael will pass between the western end of Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula on Monday.  Michael could approach northern Florida by Wednesday.  It will be a hurricane at that time and it could be a major hurricane.  Michael could produce strong winds, a significant storm surge and drop heavy rain when it reaches the coast.

Possible Tropical Development Near Yucatan Peninsula

A tropical cyclone could develop near the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 400 miles (640 km) southeast of Cancun, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A broad area of low pressure is over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  Several smaller, mesoscale centers of rotation appear to be revolving around the larger low pressure system.  One of the mesoscale centers is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean just west of the coast of Central America.  One or two other mesoscale centers appear to be over the western Caribbean Sea near Honduras.  The low level circulation is not currently well organized.  It is broad and diffuse.  Thunderstorms are clustered around the mesoscale centers, but large scale rainbands have not formed.

Westerly winds in the upper levels are are blowing over the top of the system.  Those winds are creating moderate vertical wind shear which is inhibiting the development of the low pressure system.  The upper level winds are forecast to weaken during the next few days and the wind shear will diminish.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is near 30°C.  The broad low pressure system could slowly organize during the next two to three days.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 70% probability of formation of a tropical cyclone near the Yucatan peninsula or over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next five days.  A reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the low pressure system on Sunday, if necessary.

The broad low is southwest of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is expected to steer the low toward the northwest during the weekend.  On its anticipated track the low will move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next several days.  it could move into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Leslie continued to meander northeast of Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located at latitude 36.2°N and longitude 58.4°W which put it about 455 miles (730 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Leslie was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Major Hurricane Sergio Churns Southwest of Baja California

Major Hurricane Sergio churned southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Sergio was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 117.9°W which put it about 845 miles (1360 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sergio was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Sergio is a well organized hurricane.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Sergio.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Sergio.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Sergio is 23.6.  The Hurrricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.7.

Hurricane Sergio will remain in an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane for several more days.  Sergio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Sergio could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Hurricane Sergio will move over cooler water in a couple of days and it is likely to weaken when that occurs.

Hurricane Sergio will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Sergio toward the northwest during the next day or so.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen on Friday and it will steer Sergio more toward the west when that happens.  On its expected track Hurricane Sergio will move gradually farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Rosa Nears Baja California

Tropical Storm Rosa moved nearer to Baja California on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 116.5°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Rosa was weakening as it approached the coast of Baja California.  Rosa was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 23°C.  An upper level low west of California was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing significant vertical wind shear.  The effects of cool water and vertical shear were causing most of the stronger thunderstorms to occur northeast of the center of circulation.  Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The center of Tropical Storm Rosa will reach northern Baja California in a few hours.  Rosa will bring some gusty winds when when it reaches the coast, but the greater risk is locally heavy rainfall.  Rosa could drop several inches of rain and flash floods could occur.  The lower level part of Rosa’s circulation will weaken when it crosses Baja California.  However, the upper low west of California will steer the middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Rosa over the Southwestern U.S.  Rosa, or its remnants, could drop locally heavy rain over that region during the next several days.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for southeastern California, eastern Nevada, western Arizona, and much of Utah.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Sergio was strengthening slowly south of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 790 miles (1275 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sergio was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Rosa Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Rosa moved toward Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Rosa was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 118.9°W which put it about 440 miles (710 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe, Mexico.

Hurricane Rosa will move into an environment unfavorable for hurricanes on Sunday.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is cooler than 26°C.  In addition an upper level low near the west coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will cause vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Rosa to weaken.  Rosa could weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday night.

The upper low will steer Hurricane Rosa toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Rosa could reach Baja California on Monday.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.  Even though it will weaken, Rosa will drop heavy rain over parts northern Baja California and the southwestern U.S.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Sergio formed southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 103.3°W which put it about 390 miles (630 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Sergio was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Hurricane Rosa Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Rosa rapidly intensified into a major hurricane southwest of Baja California on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rosa was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 115.9°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rosa was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Hurricane Rosa rapidly intensified into a powerful hurricane on Thursday and a circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  The circulation around Hurricane Rosa was symmetrical.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the hurricane.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rosa was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force only extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rosa was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.4.

Hurricane Rosa will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the shorter term.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, an eyewall replacement cycle could halt the current period of rapid intensification.  Hurricane Rosa will start to move over cooler water during the weekend.  An upper level low west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Rosa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they could cause Rosa to weaken more quickly.

Hurricane Rosa will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico on Friday.  Rosa will start to move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  The upper level trough east of California will turn Rosa more toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Rosa could approach Baja California early next week.  It may weaken to a tropical storm before it gets to Baja California, but it still will have the potential to drop heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Rosa Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Rosa developed southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 108.0°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct center of circulation consolidated in an area of thunderstorms southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rosa.  An inner rainband wrapped tightly around the center.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Rosa.  The circulation was symmetrical and rainbands were occurring in all parts of the tropical storm.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Rosa.

Tropical Storm Rosa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Rosa could intensify into a hurricane by later on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Rosa will move southwest of a middle level ridge over northern Mexico.  The ridge will steer Rosa in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Rosa will move southwest of Baja California later this week.

Tropical Depression Forms Over Gulf of California

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E formed over the Gulf of California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Loreto, Mexico.  It was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was still organizing .  There was a cluster of thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Most of the stronger storms were east of the center.  Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop north and south of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the depression.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  The water in the Gulf of California is very warm and the depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  An upper level trough west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Nineteen-E could intensify during the next 12 hours and it has a chance to become a tropical storm.

The upper level trough west of California will steer Tropical Depression Nineteen-E toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track the depression will reach the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas in about 12 hours.  It could be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast.  It will bring some gusty winds, but locally heavy rain is the greatest risk.  There is the potential for flash floods in parts of Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua.  The lower portion of Tropical Depression Nineteen will weaken quickly after it makes landfall and moves over mountains in western Mexico.  The upper portion of the circulation and some of the moist air will be transported farther northeast and the remnants of the circulation could enhance rainfall farther inland.