Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Tropical Storm Noul Nearing Yap and Intensifying

Tropical Storm Noul intensified on Monday as it moved closer to Yap.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 138.8°E which put it about 55 miles east of Yap and about 290 miles east-northeast of Palau.  Noul was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and there were gusts 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A primary rainband appears to be wrapping around the small center of circulation in Tropical Storm Noul.  It continues to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature in near 29°C.  A subtropical ridge east of Noul is generating light easterly winds over the top the circulation.  The flow is causing modest vertical wind shear and may be the reason why many of the thunderstorms are forming to the west of the center.  If the rainband can wrap completely around the center, then an eye may form.  Noul is likely to remain in an environment that will support further intensification and it could become a typhoon within 24 hours.

Noul is near the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is moving slowly.  The slow motion is likely to continue for another day or so.  After that time, the subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen and extend farther westward.  As the ridge extends westward, it is forecast to steer Noul toward the west-northwest later this week.

On the projected track Noul will move almost directly over Yap on Tuesday.  It could be near typhoon intensity at that time and bring wind and heavy rain.

 

TD 06W Intensifies Into Tropical Storm Noul East of Yap

The center of circulation in Tropical Depression 06W became more well defined on Sunday and the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Noul.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 9.7°N and longitude 140.3°E which put it about 150 miles east of Yap and about 360 miles east-northeast of Palau.  Noul was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 55 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Noul is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of the tropical storm is producing some southeasterly winds over the top of Noul.  However, the vertical wind shear appears to be decreasing.  More thunderstorms developed close to the center of circulation in recent hours and a primary rainband appears to be wrapping around the northern side of the storm.  These are indications of a tropical cyclone that is becoming more well organized.  The increased convection near the center is contributing to well developed upper level divergence on the western and northern portions of the circulation.  Noul will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  Wind speeds are likely to increase and a period of rapid intensification is possible once the circulation is more well organized.  Noul could become a typhoon in a day or two and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Noul is at the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it slowly toward the northwest.  It could continue to move slowly for another 24 hours or so.  After that time the subtropical ridge is forecast to extend farther west and begin to steer Noul on a west-northwesterly track.  The projected track would take Noul in the general direction of the northern Philippines.  The center of Noul is forecast to pass just north of Yap and it could bring wind and heavy rain when it does.

 

Tropical Depression 06W Forms Southeast of Yap

A low level circulation with a primary spiral band developed within a broad area of thunderstorms and the system was classified as Tropical Depression 06W on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday night the center of Tropical Depression 06W was located at latitude 7.5°N and longitude 141.2°E which put it about 240 miles southeast of Yap and about 430 miles east of Palau.  06W was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Depression 06W is an environment favorable for further intensification.  It is over Sea Surface Temperatures that are warmer than 28°C and it will be able to extract plenty of energy from the ocean along its path.  An upper level ridge northeast of the circulation is generating some easterly winds over the top of it, but the vertical wind shear is only likely to slow the rate of intensification.  Tropical Depression 06W is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday and it could become a typhoon in several days.

A subtropical ridge is steering 06W toward the west and it is expected to continue to steer it in a generally west-northwesterly motion during the next day or so.  The movement could slow as 06W nears the western end of the subtropical ridge.  The eastern end of a second subtropical ridge located farther west could take over as the primary steering mechanism in two or three days.  In that scenario Tropical Depression 06W would continue to move toward the northern Philippines.

Tropical Depression 06W could be nearing Yap in 24 to 30 hours.  It is likely to be a tropical storm at that time and it could bring some wind and rain to Yap.

 

Tropical Cyclone Quang Nearing the Coast of Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Quang is weakening as it nears the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Quang was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 112.1°E which put it about 160 miles northwest of Exmouth and about 210 miles north-northwest of Coral Bay, Australia.  Quang was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 120 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

An upper level ridge northeast of Tropical Cyclone Quang is generating strong northwesterly winds and vertical wind shear over it.  The wind shear in combination with cooler Sea Surface Temperatures is causing Quang to weaken.  The wind shear and rate of weakening could increase as the tropical cyclone moves farther south.

The upper level ridge is also steering Quang toward the southeast.  On the projected track Quang would make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Exmouth and Cape Cuvier in about 12 hours.  The forecast weakening means that Quang is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it makes landfall.  It will bring some wind and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia as it moves inland.

 

Tropical Cyclone Quang Intensified Rapidly Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Quang intensified very rapidly on Wednesday and it reached an intensity equivalent to a major hurricane.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Quang was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 109.2°E which put it about 460 miles northwest of Exmouth and about 610 miles north-northwest of Carnarvon, Australia.  Quang was moving south-southeast at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 160 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

As Quang moved across very warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), the upper level winds eased enough to allow it to intensify very rapidly.  Thunderstorms around the eyewall transported mass upward and generated upper level divergence in all directions, which allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly.  The decrease in surface pressure generated the rapid increase in wind speed.    Quang is a small tropical cyclone and small tropical cyclones can intensify and weaken more quickly than larger storms.  Quang may have peaked in intensity.  As it moves farther south it will move over cooler SSTs.  Upper level wind speeds will increase along the projected track creating more vertical wind shear.  In addition, it appears that some drier air may be entering the northwestern part of the circulation.  The combination of cooler SSTs, more wind shear and drier air is likely to weaken Quang significantly before it reaches the coast of Western Australia.

Quang is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  As it moves toward higher latitudes, westerly winds are likely to steer it more toward the southeast.  Quang could be approaching the coast of Western Australia between Onslow and Denham in about 48 to 60 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone Quang Forms Northwest of Australia

After several quiet weeks in the tropics a low level circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms northwest of Australia and the system was classified as Tropical Cyclone Quang (24S) on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Quang was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 109.7°E which put it about 550 miles northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Quang was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Quang developed over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 30°C.  A subtropical ridge to the east of Quang is generating some northeasterly winds over the circulation in the upper levels.  The resulting vertical wind shear is slowing the intensification of the circulation.  However, satellite imagery indicates that Quang is becoming more well organized.  A primary rainband has wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye may be forming.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulation are increasing the upper level outflow, especially on the southern side of Quang.  Further intensification is likely and Quang could reach hurricane intensity in 24 to 48 hours.  Eventually, when Quang moves farther south, it will move over cooler SSTs.  Vertical wind shear is also likely to increase at the same time, and Quang is likely to weaken as it approaches Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Quang is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge.  As it reaches the western end of the ridge, it is likely to take a more southerly track on Wednesday.  By Thursday westerly winds are forecast to begin to steer Quang to the southeast.  On its projected track, Quang would approach the coast of Western Australia in about three days.  If it weakens as expected, Quang would bring some wind and rain when it moves across Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Solo Passing Near New Caledonia

The center of Tropical Cyclone Solo is passing near New Caledonia.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Solo was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 164.6°E which put it about 200 miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Solo was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels are generating significant vertical wind shear over the top of Solo.  The strong upper level winds are blowing the tops of thunderstorms to the southeast side of the circulation.  The wind shear is disrupting the circulation and the low level center is exposed on visible satellite images.  Solo is weakening and that trend is likely to continue as it moves farther southeast.

Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) Intensifying Slowly Over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) intensified slowly over the Coral Sea on Friday.  At 6:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Solo was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 161.1°E which put it about 470 miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia and about 470 miles west of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Solo was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Solo is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures, but an upper level high to the east of it is producing northerly winds over the top of the circulation.  The vertical wind shear is causing more of the stronger thunderstorms to be located south of the center and it is inhibiting the intensification of Solo.  As a result it is intensifying slowly and that trend is expected to continue for the next day or two.  Eventually, when Solo moves to a higher latitude, stronger upper level winds will create more vertical wind shear and weaken it.

Solo is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  As it gets farther south, Solo is expected to move more toward the southeast.  On its projected track, Solo would approach New Caledonia in about 36 hours.  It could be near hurricane intensity at that time.  Solo could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to New Caledonia when it moves past.

Tropical Cyclone 23P Organizes Rapidly Over the Coral Sea

A well organized circulation developed rapidly within an area of thunderstorms over the Coral Sea and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone 23P.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 23P was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 160.5°E which put it about 670 miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia and about 600 miles west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  It was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 23P is located in an area where the upper level winds are light.  That allowed thunderstorms to develop and wrap around the core of the circulation.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions and the pressure is decreasing.  The tropical cyclone is over Sea Surface Temperatures which are near 30°C, which means there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 23P could reach hurricane intensity in a day or two.

The tropical cyclone is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering it toward the southwest.  As it moves around the end of the ridge, it will turn more toward the southeast.  On its expected track Tropical Cyclone 23P could approach New Caledonia in 48 to 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Maysak Making Landfall in Luzon

Typhoon Maysak moved into an area of drier air and weakened to a tropical storm on Saturday before making landfall in Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 122.0°E which put it about 20 miles southeast of Cauayan and about 160 miles northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Maysak was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Maysak is moving inland over Luzon.  The combination of the mountains in northern Luzon and drier air will cause Maysak to continue to weaken.  Even as the wind speeds decrease, air flowing up the sides of mountains will enhance the rainfall and create the potential for localized flooding and mudslides.  If a closed circulation still exists, it will be much weaker when it emerges over the South China Sea on Sunday.