Author Archives: jay_hobgood

TD 18E Intensifies into Tropical Storm Rachel

Tropical Depression 18-E which formed earlier today has intensified into Tropical Storm Rachel.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 107.4°W which put it about 325 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 550 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A strong upper level ridge over northern Mexico has been producing northeasterly winds and wind shear over the circulation of Rachel.  The wind shear has been the reason why most of the thunderstorms have been located west of the center of circulation.  The northeasterly winds diminished slightly during recent hours and more thunderstorms developed closer to the center.  The improved organization allowed the wind speed at the surface to increase and Rachel became a tropical storm.  The upper level winds could decrease further and some additional intensification is possible.

A ridge in the middle levels is likely to steer Rachel to the west-northwest during the next day or two.  As Rachel moves farther north, it could be affected by a mid-level trough (i.e. a shortwave trough) in the westerly flow in about 72 hours.  If Rachel is strong enough and tall enough, then the mid-level trough could turn Rachel back to the northeast, which could move it toward Baja California.  If Rachel is weaker and the circulation does not extend as high into the atmosphere, then the mid-level trough may not affect the movement of Rachel.  In that case, it would probably continue to move west and dissipate over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures.

 

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong Near Taiwan

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Fung-Wong was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 120.0°W which put it about 250 miles south-southwest of Taipei Taiwan.  Fung-Wong was moving just slightly east of due north at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 75 m.p.h.

Fung-Wong will likely move near or across Taiwan during the next few hours.  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in locations where the circulation around Fung-Wong pushes air up the slopes of mountains.  Flooding may be an issue in areas that experience heavy rainfall.  The heaviest rainfall will likely occur on the eastern slopes of mountains as Fung-Wong moves across southern Taiwan and brings easterly winds to those areas.  However, the potential for flooding along the western slopes of mountains, especially in northern Taiwan, may exist as the tropical storm moves north of the island and the wind shifts to a more westerly direction.

Fung-Wong will likely weaken as the circulation in the lower levels is disrupted by the mountains.  It could maintain tropical storm intensity and move toward eastern China once the center emerges back over the water.

 

Tropical Storm Polo Moving Northwest

Tropical Storm Polo continues to move northwestward parallel to the west coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Polo was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 106.6°W which put it about 150 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico and about 375 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

An upper level ridge over northwestern Mexico is producing northeasterly winds that are creating wind shear over Polo.  The wind shear is limiting thunderstorm activity on the northern side of the storm.  It is also possible that Polo is close enough to Mexico that it may be pulling some drier air into the northern half of the circulation.  Both of those factors are inhibiting intensification of Polo.

A high pressure system in the middle levels over Mexico is steering Polo toward the northwest.  The tropical storm is starting to move a little more quickly.  Numerical models are suggesting that the mid-level high will strengthen and eventually turn Polo more toward the west.  Most guidance predicts that Polo will move southwest of Baja California.  However, based on the faster motion the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of southern Baja California from Santa Fe to La Paz.  A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for a portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.  A Tropical Storm Watch continues for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes.

 

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong Near Northern Philippines

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong is moving near the northernmost part of the Philippines.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Fung-Wong was located latitude 18.0°N and longitude 122.5°E, which put it about 250 miles north-northeast of Manila.  Fung-Wong was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h.  The maximum wind speed was 45 m.p.h.

The structure around Fung-Wong is not particularly well organized.  Most of the thunderstorm activity is occurring southeast of the the center of circulation.  Wind shear is inhibiting the intensification of the tropical storm.  Slow intensification is possible if the upper level winds slow down.

Fung-Wong is expected to take a turn more toward the north and it could move toward Taiwan during the next 36-48 hours.

 

Polo Becomes a Hurricane

The circulation around Polo continues to exhibit increasing signs of intensification and it was upgraded to hurricane status on Wednesday night.  Polo is the sixteenth named tropical cyclone to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during 2014 and it is the eleventh to reach hurricane intensity.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 104.6°W which put it about 180 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The movement of Polo has varied as the circulation has tightened around the core and more well defined spiral bands have developed.  In recent hours it has exhibited a more west-northwesterly motion after moving more toward the northwest earlier in the day.  Polo appears to be being steered mostly by an upper level high over Mexico.  The upper level high should steer Polo on a track that is roughly parallel to the west coast of Mexico.  Many of the numerical models are predicting that Polo will pass southwest of Baja California, but as Hurricane Odile showed, it could take a track closer to the coast.

Polo is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and further intensification is likely.  As the organization of the circulation increases and an eye forms, a period of more rapid intensification is possible.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes.

 

Edouard Becomes a Major Hurricane

The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Edouard is now 115 m.p.h. which makes it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and a Major Hurricane.  Edouard is the first Major Hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.  It is the first hurricane to reach Major Hurricane intensity over the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Sandy briefly was a Major Hurricane south of Cuba in 2012.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Edouard was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 57.8°N which put it about 420 miles east of Bermuda, about 1060 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras and about 1720 miles west of Fayal Island in the Azores.  Edouard was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Edouard is moving around the western portion of the subtropical high pressure system.  It should gradually turn more to the right until it reaches the upper level westerlies which should accelerate it eastward.  Some model guidance suggest that Edouard could approach the Azores during the weekend, while other models forecast a track north of the Azores.

Edouard could intensify a little more today, but cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and stronger westerly winds will begin to weaken the hurricane when it turns eastward.

 

Typhoon Kalmaegi Approaching Coast of Southeast Asia

Typhoon Kalmaegi continues to move toward the west-northwest and the center is very near the south coast of China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 111.4°E which put it about 230 miles southwest of Hong Kong.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h.  Kalmaegi has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain to portions of southern China and northern Vietnam.

Hurricane Odile Bringing Winds/Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Odile is bringing strong winds and heavy rain to portions of Baja California as it moves up the peninsula.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 111.3°W which put it about 90 miles south of Loreto, Mexico.  Odile was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  When the center of Odile moved over the southern tip of Baja California during the night, it tied Hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Baja California Sur in the satellite era.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Santa Rosalia.  A Hurriane Watch is in effect from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Santa Rosalia northward to Bahia de Los Angeles, from Punta Eugenia northward to San Jose de Las Palomas, and from Altata to Bahia Kino.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to Cabo San Quintin, from Bahia de Los Angeles to San Felipe and from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

Odile is expected to continue moving over Baja California in the short term.  Interaction with the mountains in Baja California sometimes causes the upper parts of the circulations around tropical cyclones to be decoupled from the lower level rotation.  This makes track forecasts challenging because the upper and lower portions of the storms can go in different directions.  Odile or at least the upper and middle portions of the circulation could eventually turn more toward the north or north-northeast and some portion of Odile could spend a period of time over the Gulf of California.  It is possible that the low level circulation gets left behind and meanders along the west coast of Baja, California.

The mountains in Baja California should continue to weaken the circulation as long as the center remains over land.  If the circulation maintains a coherent vertical structure and moves over the Gulf of California, some re-intensification is possible.  The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of California are very warm.  Increased wind shear and land interaction will ultimately weaken Odile as it moves farther north.

The more northward track of Odile increases the potential for it to pull moist air into portions of the southwestern U.S. and some areas could see significant rainfall later this week.

 

Hurricane Odile Approaching Baja California

The center of Major Hurricane Odile is rapidly approaching the southern tip of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 30 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Odile was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 930 mb.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Loreto.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos northward to Punta Eugenia.  Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the portion of the coast from Loreto northward to Bahia San Juan Batista and from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia northward to San Jose de Las Palomas and from Altata to Bahia Kino.

Odile is moving more rapidly tonight and its current motion should bring the center very near the southern tip of Baja California during the next several hours.  It looks like Odile will move very close to the west coast of the Baja peninsula.  It could move along the coast or just offshore.  In either case Odile will bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of southern Baja California.

Odile went through an eyewall replacement cycle today.  A larger outer eye surrounded the smaller inner eye, which eventually dissipated.  The dissipation of the inner eye was accompanied by a minor decrease in the wind speed.  However, the larger outer eye also had an effect of increasing the radius of strong winds and the circulation around Odile is larger than it was before.

 

 

Hurricane Odile Intensifying Rapidly

Hurricane Odile is intensifying rapidly and it is very close to reaching Major Hurricane status.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 165 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 410 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Odile is moving more quickly now and it was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 110 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

As the upper level wind shear decreased over Odile, it entered a period of rapid intensification.  Odile is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and it is likely to reach Major Hurricane status on Sunday.  The size of the circulation around Odile has also increased and hurricane force winds extend outward an average of 35 miles from the center.

Odile has begun to move more quickly and it has been moving more northward than northwestward.  This motion has brought it closer to the coast and it has also caused the model guidance to shift the forecast track closer to the southern tip of Baja California.  The change in the predicted track of Odile prompted the government of Mexico to issue new watches and warnings.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to La Paz.  Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Puerto San Andresito and from La Paz northward to Loreto.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Loreto.  The Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos and from Loreto to Mulege.