Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Intensifies East of Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified east of Mozambique on Thursday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 24.2°S and longitude 37.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east of Inhambane, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified to nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday night. A small circular eye at the center of Guambe was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 6 hours. Guambe could intensify rapidly for a period of time and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. Rainbands on the western side of Guambe could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Forms over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Guambe formed over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Vilanculos, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system moved eastward from southern Africa over the Mozambique Channel and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe exhibited more organization after it moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Guambe. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be very favorable for inensification during the next 48 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly after an inner core develops. Guambe is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel, but close to the coast of Mozambique. Guambe will produce gusty winds and it will drop heavy rain near the coast of Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Weakens Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Faraji weakened southeast of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1000 miles (1610 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

An upper level low east of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds which blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Faraji on Friday. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and the winds blew the tops of many of the thunderstorms around Faraji. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Faraji consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Faraji.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. However, the upper level low east of Madagascar will continue to produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will continue to cause the strong vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will weaken during the next 48 hours..

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Churns Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Faraji churned southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 84.7°E which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

After intensification to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday, Tropical Cyclone Faraji weakened gradually during the past 48 hours. Even though Faraji weakened, the circulation around the tropical cyclone remained very well organized. A small circular eye was apparent on infrared satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km from the center of Faraji.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move into an environment that will become less favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar will move toward Tropical Cyclone Faraji. The approaching trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause the wind vertical wind shear to increase. More vertical wind shear will likely cause Faraji to weaken during the next 48 hours..

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 82.8°E which put it about 835 miles (1350 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane southeast of Diego Garcia on Monday. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Faraji. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that rings of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Faraji. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Faraji was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Faraji. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Faraji was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.2.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will likely continue to be the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Faraji to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the east during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Faraji strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Sunday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 80.0°E which put it about 735 miles (1185 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye with a diameter of 28 miles (44 km) formed at the center of Faraji. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of the circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Faraji was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Faraji. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Faraji was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) was 33.3.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment capable of supporting strong tropical cyclones for several more days. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will likely continue to be the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the east during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 79.7°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday. A small circular eye formed at the center of Faraji. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Faraji. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Faraji. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. Faragi could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the east during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Faraji formed over the South Indian Ocean on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 81.2°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Faraji was organizing quickly on Friday morning. Numerous thunderstorms developed around the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Faraji. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will continue to intensify. Faragi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours. It could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the south during the next 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Faraji is likely to move more toward the east next week after it moves around the southwestern part of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on the coast of Mozambique on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 34.6°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Beira, Mozambique. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Beira on Friday night. Eloise continued to intensify until the center made landfall. A small circular eye was evident on satellite images when Tropical Cyclone Eloise approached the coast. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of E;poise. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

It is likely that the northern eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Eloise produced winds of near hurricane/typhoon force in Beira. Southerly winds blowing water toward the coast may have caused a storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters). Eloise was continuing to produce gusty winds and heavy rain in the region around Beira. The tropical cyclone will weaken gradually as it moves inland over central Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, northern South Africa and eastern Botswana. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Eloise intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) east-northeast of Beira, Mozambique. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Mozambique on Friday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Eloise and an eye was visible on satellite images. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye want the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Eloise will move over water in the Mozambique Channel where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise is likely to get stronger today.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next two days. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise will make landfall on the coast of Mozambique near Beira in less than 12 hours. Eloise will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will bring winds to hurricane/typhoon force to the area around Beira, Mozambique. Eloise will weaken after it moves inland, but it will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, southern Botswana, and northern South Africa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.