Category Archives: South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany Strengthens East of Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany strengthened east of the Cape York Peninsula on Sunday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was located at latitude 13.9°S and longitude 145.9°E which put it about 120 miles (190 km) north-northeast of Cooktown, Australia. Tropical Cyclone was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. A Watch was in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Gilbert River Mouth to Mapoon.

A former Tropical Low east of the Cape York Peninsula strengthened quickly on Sunday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Tiffany. More Thunderstorms developed near the center of Tiffany’s circulation. More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tiffany.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Tiffany will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered east of Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will pass near Cape Melville in 12 hours. If some of the circulation on the southern side of Tiffany passes over land, that could inhibit intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move north of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Tiffany toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will pass just north of Cape Melville in 12 hours. Tiffany will make landfall on the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula east of Coen within 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 05P was spinning between Fiji and Vanuatu. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05P was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 176.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west of Tavuki, Fiji. Tropical Cyclone 05P was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Two Tropical Lows Form over South Pacific

Two tropical lows formed over the South Pacific Ocean on Saturday morning. The first Tropical Low formed over the Coral Sea east of the Cape York Peninsula. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of that Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 240 miles (350 km) northeast of Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A well defined low level center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the Coral Sea on Saturday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. A Watch was issued for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered east of Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The Tropical Low could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move north of a high pressure system centered east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipate track the Tropical Low could approach the eastern Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cooktown in 36 hours. It could be a named tropical cyclone when it approaches the coast.

The second Tropical Low developed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the second Tropical Low was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 173.3°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) west-southwest of Nadi, Fiji. That Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a large low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as a tropical low. The circulation around the second Tropical Low was much larger than the one over the Coral Sea, but the distribution of thunderstorms was also asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of circulation. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from Tropical Low.

The second Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low is likely to intensify into a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The second Tropical Low will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. It is likely to meander slowly over the South Pacific Ocean between Fiji and Vanuatu during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Seth Speeds South

Tropical Cyclone Seth sped toward the south over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth was located at latitude 25.8°S and longitude 159.0°E which put it about 385 miles (620 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Seth was moving toward the south at 25 m.p.h. (41 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia and an upper level ridge east of the Coral Sea were combining to steer Tropical Cyclone Seth quickly toward the south on Saturday night. The structure of Seth’s circulation was beginning to resemble a subtropical cyclone. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south of the center of circulation. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Seth consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The upper level trough and upper level ridge were producing strong northerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Seth’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. Drier air was wrapping around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Seth. The strong vertical wind shear and drier air were causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The distribution of winds around Seth was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Seth. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (150 km) in the northern half of Seth’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Seth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. However, the upper level trough and upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. Drier air in the northern half of Seth’s circulation will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Seth could make a transition to a subtropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Seth could maintain its intensity during the transition, but it is likely to weaken during the next few days.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Seth quickly toward the south during the next 12 hours. The upper trough could make a transition to a cutoff low during the next day or so. The center of Seth could move under the cutoff low, which would cause Seth to move more slowly. The cutoff low and Tropical Cyclone Seth could drift west toward Australia during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seth could move slowly toward Australia as a subtropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Seth Spins Northeast of Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Seth was spinning northeast of Brisbane, Australia on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 157.7°E which put it about 465 miles (745 km) northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Seth was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seth strengthened on Friday morning, but then it weakened later in the day. An upper level ridge centered northeast of Australia and an upper level trough over eastern Australia were interacting to produce strong northwesterly winds over the Coral Sea on Friday night. Those winds were blowing toward the top of Seth’s circulation and they were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing an asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Seth. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of Seth. Bands in the northwestern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Seth. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Seth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia and the upper level ridge over the Coral Sea will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent Tropical Cyclone Seth from intensifying during the next 24 hours. There is a chance that the upper level winds could weaken in 24 hours, which might allow Seth to strengthen at that time.

The upper level trough and ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Seth toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. The upper level trough could evolve into a cutoff low, which could pull Seth back toward the west during the second half of the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seth could be east of Brisbane in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seth Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Seth formed east of Australia over the Coral Sea on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 153.7°E which put it about 305 miles (495 km) east-northeast of Mackay, Australia. Seth was moving toward the southeast at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seth formed from a tropical low that initially developed northwest of Darwin, Australia almost a week ago. The tropical low made landfall southwest of Darwin and then moved east across northern Australia. The tropical low weakened as it passed over land, but then it regained some organization when it passed over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. The circulation around the tropical low began to strengthen after it moved over the Coral Sea east of Cairns. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of center of circulation on Thursday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Seth.

The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Seth. Bands in the northern and western parts of Seth’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Seth generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) to the southeast of the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Seth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered northeast of Australia. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Seth’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to keep Seth from getting stronger. Tropical Cyclone Seth could intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Seth toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seth will move over the Coral Sea parallel to the east coast of Australia. Seth could be located northeast of Brisbane in 36 hours. The steering currents could weaken during the weekend and Tropical Cyclone Seth could stall.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby Brings Wind and Rain to New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Ruby brought wind and rain to New Caledonia on Monday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 168.3°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east of Noumea, New Caledonia. Ruby was moving toward the east-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby brought wind and rain to much of New Caledonia on Monday night. The center of Ruby made landfall on the northwest end of New Caledonia near Poum. Tropical Cyclone Ruby moved quickly toward the southeast and the center of circulation passed over most of the entire length of New Caledonia. The center exited the coast east of Noumea on Tuesday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Ruby’s circulation. So, Tropical Cyclone Ruby brought tropical storm force winds to much of New Caledonia. The winds in the southern half of Ruby’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force. Tropical Cyclone Ruby also dropped locally heavy rain over parts of New Caledonia. Clockwise rotation around Ruby would have caused the air to flow up the eastern slopes of mountains and the heaviest rain likely occurred in those areas. Locally heavy rain may have caused flash floods in some places.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Ruby quickly toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Ruby will be northeast of New Zealand in 36 hours. The upper level trough will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ruby’s circulation. Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move over much cooler water when it moves toward the southeast. The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Ruby to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ruby rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 159.3°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Ruby was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby rapidly intensified on Sunday. A small eye formed at the center of Ruby. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ruby’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Ruby was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Ruby’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ruby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ruby’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will intensify and it could continue to intensify rapidly. Ruby could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Ruby toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ruby could approach the northwestern part of New Caledonia in 24 hours. Ruby will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of New Caledonia. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods. Strong winds and locally heavy rain could cause widespread electrical outages. Winds blowing water toward the east coast of New Caledonia could cause storm surges.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby Intensifies over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ruby intensified over the Coral Sea on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 158.6°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Ruby was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby intensified more rapidly over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Sunday morning. Microwave satellite images provided evidence that a small eye was forming at the center of Ruby’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ruby. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Ruby was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ruby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ruby’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Ruby toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ruby could approach the northwestern part of New Caledonia in 36 hours. Ruby is very likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of New Caledonia. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03P formed over the Coral Sea southwest of the Solomon Islands on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03P was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 157.1°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone 03P was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a small low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Saturday into Tropical Cyclone 03P. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms also became more numerous in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 03P will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 03P will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03P will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03P could approach the northwestern part of New Caledonia in 48 hours. The tropical cyclone is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Brings Wind and Rain to New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Niran brought wind and rain to New Caledonia on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 165.0°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran weakened during its approach to New Caledonia. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall, and concentric eyewalls formed. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, stronger eyewall weakened. Even though it weakened, Tropical Cyclone Niran was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.7. Niran was capable of causing major damage.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Niran was passing just to the west of New Caledonia. The strongest winds around the core of Niran were remaining just west of the island. Tropical Cyclone Niran was producing gusty winds and it was dropping locally heavy rain over New Caledonia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the east-southeast during the next two days. Niran will continue to weaken during that time period. The upper level trough will cause vertical wind shear and Tropical Cyclone Niran will move over cooler water. Weather conditions on New Caledonia should improve on Saturday when Niran moves rapidly away from the area.