Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 149.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran expanded in size on Wednesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 48 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia.