Tropical Cyclone Victor intensified on Monday and it is now the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone  Victor was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 166.3°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east-southeast of Niue.  Victor was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Victor has an unusual structure.  It has a very large eye, which is about one degree of longitude across.  The eye is surrounded by a narrow eyewall of strong thunderstorms and a couple of thin, primary rainbands.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms in the eyewall are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  The eye has appeared to contract a bit on recent satellite imagery, which could be a sign of further intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Victor is an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 27°C.  An upper level ridge located northeast of Victor is producing some light northwesterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone.  However, the vertical wind shear is minimal and it is not inhibiting intensification at this time.  Victor could continue to intensify on Tuesday.  Later this week Tropical Cyclone Victor will move into an environment with cooler SSTs and more wind shear.  Victor will start to weakening when it enters that environment.

The ridge northeast of Victor is getting stronger and it is forcing the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-southwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Victor with the strongest winds will pass south of Niue during the next 48 hours.  However, Tropical Cyclone Victor could bring a period of strong winds and rain to Niue as it moves south of the islands.  The large wind field around Victor could also generate significant waves and surges.  Tropical Cyclone Victor could be approaching Tonga later this week.