Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone Victor

Tropical Cyclone Victor Moves Toward Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Victor moved slowly westward toward Tonga as it passed south of Niue on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Victor was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 169.8°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) south of Niue and about 370 miles (595 km) east of Tonga.  Victor was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Victor still looks like the equivalent of a hurricane on satellite images.  It has a well formed eye which is surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms near the center of Victor are generating a large area of upper level divergence.  Convection outside of the core of Victor is somewhat asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are located in bands south and east of the center of circulation.  There are few tall thunderstorms in the northwestern part of Victor.

Tropical Cyclone Victor continues to be in an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Victor is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  The upper level winds near Victor are light and there is no appreciable vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Victor has the potential to intensify during the next 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge south of Victor is steering the tropical cyclone slowly toward the west.  The ridge is expected to continue to steer Victor toward the west, but at a faster speed, during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Victor could be approaching Tonga in about 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Victor passed far enough south of Niue that the stronger winds and heavy rain did not affect the island.  Large waves and surf may have affected some of the coastal areas.  Tropical Cyclone Victor could bring wind and rain to Tonga in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Victor Intensifies East of Niue

Tropical Cyclone Victor intensified on Monday and it is now the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone  Victor was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 166.3°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east-southeast of Niue.  Victor was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Victor has an unusual structure.  It has a very large eye, which is about one degree of longitude across.  The eye is surrounded by a narrow eyewall of strong thunderstorms and a couple of thin, primary rainbands.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms in the eyewall are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  The eye has appeared to contract a bit on recent satellite imagery, which could be a sign of further intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Victor is an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 27°C.  An upper level ridge located northeast of Victor is producing some light northwesterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone.  However, the vertical wind shear is minimal and it is not inhibiting intensification at this time.  Victor could continue to intensify on Tuesday.  Later this week Tropical Cyclone Victor will move into an environment with cooler SSTs and more wind shear.  Victor will start to weakening when it enters that environment.

The ridge northeast of Victor is getting stronger and it is forcing the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-southwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Victor with the strongest winds will pass south of Niue during the next 48 hours.  However, Tropical Cyclone Victor could bring a period of strong winds and rain to Niue as it moves south of the islands.  The large wind field around Victor could also generate significant waves and surges.  Tropical Cyclone Victor could be approaching Tonga later this week.