Hurricane Kiko Weakens

Hurricane Kiko weakened east of Hawaii on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 145.5°W which put the center about 635 miles (1025 km) east of Hilo Hawaii. Kiko was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Hurricane Kiko weakened east of Hawaii on Sunday as it moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 26°C.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Kiko’s circulation, but low clouds were starting to appear inside the eye.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Kiko generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  However, more mass was converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere than was being pumped away in the upper levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Hurricane Kiko was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kiko’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kiko.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.3. Hurricane Kiko was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Kiko will move through an environment that will become even more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kiko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The water just to the north of Kiko’s forecast track is even colder. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of Hawaii.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kiko’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of marginal Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Kiko to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Kiko will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kiko toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kiko will be northeast of Hawaii on Monday night.