Typhoon Kalmaegi moved over the South China Sea on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 115.2°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) east-southeast of Quy Nohn, Vietnam.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Typhoon Kalmaegi strengthened again on Wednesday as it moved over the South China Sea.  A new, small circular eye formed at the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.  Storms near the center of Kalmaegi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Kalmaegi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kalmaegi was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.8.  Typhoon Kalmaegi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over China.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  There is drier air to the north of Kalmaegi.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could intensify during the next 24 hours if the drier air remains north of the typhoon.  Kalmaegi could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over China.  The high pressure system will steer Kalmaegi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kalmaegi will reach the coast of central Vietnam in 24 hours.

The center of Typhoon Kalmaegi is likely to make landfall on the coast of Vietnam near Quy Nohn.  Kalmaegi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Vietnam.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will also drop heavy rain over southern Laos, Cambodia, and northern Thailand.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 32W  was slowly becoming more organized east of Yap.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 32W was located at latitude 8.9°N and longitude 142.3°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) east of Yap.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  It is forecast to strengthen.