Tropical Storm Noul formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 124.4°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east of Aparri, Philippines. Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.
A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Noul.
More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Noul. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western half of Noul’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Noul consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storm near the center of Noul began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Noul was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southern side of Noul’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Noul.
Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of China. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Noul’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Noul will intensify during the next 24 hours. Noul is likely to strengthen to a typhoon by the weekend.
Tropical Storm Noul will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Noul toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Noul will pass south of Taiwan on Friday. Noul is likely to hit southeastern China during the weekend.
Tropical Storm Noul will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Noul will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods. Tropical Storm Noul is likely to be a typhoon when it hits southeastern China.