Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of Madagascar on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 51.6°E which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Gezani was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gezani generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gezani was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Gezani’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gezani.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gezani is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.6.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Gezani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani will intensify during the next 12 hours. Gezani could continue to intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gezani toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Gezani will reach the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits the east coast of Madagascar.  Gezani will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Gezani will be capable of causing major damage to central Madagascar.  Tropical Cyclone Gezani could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina.