A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 70% that a tropical depression or a tropical storm will form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week.

A trough of low pressure is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the trough of low pressure.  However, there is no well defined center of circulation in the trough of low pressure at the current time.

The trough of low pressure will be in an environment that will be favorable for the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next few days.  The trough of low pressure will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  Ir will be under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow across the top of the surface trough.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent that formation.

A center of circulation at the surface is likely to organize gradually over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center has tentatively tasked a reconnaissance mission to investigate the system on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.