After completing a tight slow cyclonic loop near the northern coast of Colombia, Hurricane Matthew started moving toward the northwest on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Matthew was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 73.6°W which put it about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Matthew was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Jamaica.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province.

Matthew is a compact hurricane.  It has a circular eye with a diameter of less than 10 miles (16 km).  The eye is surrounded by a tight ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the east of Hurricane Matthew.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size index (HWISI) is 41.9.  The indices indicate that Hurricane Matthew is as intense and a little smaller than Hurricane Dennis was when Dennis was over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 2005.

Hurricane Matthew will continue to move through a favorable environment on Sunday.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°.  An upper level trough west of Matthew will generate southwesterly winds which will blow near the northwestern part of the hurricane.  Although there will be some vertical wind shear, it may not have a significant impact on Hurricane Matthew.  If one of the rainbands wraps around the existing eye, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause a temporary weakening of Hurricane Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system.  The combination of the subtropical high and the upper level trough to the west of Matthew should steer the hurricane toward the north-northwest on Sunday.  On its anticipate track Hurricane Matthew could reach Jamaica and southern Haiti on Monday afternoon.  Matthew could reach eastern Cuba on Monday night and it could be over the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday.

Hurricane Matthew is a dangerous hurricane.  The indices suggest that it is capable of causing significant regional wind damage.  It could also bring flooding rains to parts of Haiti.  Hurricane Matthew could also produce dangerous storm surges on the south coasts of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.