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Hurricane Rick Makes Landfall on West Coast of Mexico

Hurricane Rick made landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Rick was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 102.1°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) north-northeast of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. Rick was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan De Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo and from Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, Mexico.

Hurricane Rick made landfall on the west coast of Mexico between Zihuatenajo and Lazaro Cardenas on Monday morning. Rick intensified before it made landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed increased to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) which made Rick a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Even though Hurricane Rick intensified, the circulation remained relative small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Rick. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rick was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.0. Hurricane Rick was capable of causing regionalized serious damage.

Hurricane Rick was bringing strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast between Lazaro Cardenas and Zihuatenajo. There were reports of damage in Ixtapa. Winds blowing water toward the coast were causing a storm surge. Heavy rain was falling over parts of Guerrero and Michoacan. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Rick will weaken steadily now that the center is inland. However, heavy rain will spread over inland sections of Guerrero and Michoacan and flash floods could occur in those areas.

Hurricane Rick Moves Toward Mexico

Hurricane Rick moved slowly toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Rick was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 101.7°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south of Zihuatenajo, Mexico. Rick was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan De Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo and from Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, Mexico.

The intensity of Hurricane Rick was steady during the past few hours. The inner core of Rick’s circulation was not as well organized as it was on Saturday afternoon. There were breaks in the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the center of Hurricane Rick. Storms near the center of circulation continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Rick. The circulation around Hurricane Rick was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Rick. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Rick will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Rick will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Rick could intensify during the next 12 hours. However, the less organized core of Rick will limit intensification. An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rick’s circulation on Monday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear could cause Hurricane Rick to weaken as it nears the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Rick will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 24 hours. A large upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will cause the high pressure system to weaken. As the high pressure system weakens, the southern part of the upper level trough will steer Rick toward the north. On its anticipated track Hurricane Rick could make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Sunday night. Hurricane Rick will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast near Zihuatanejo. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Guerrero and Michoacan on Sunday night and Monday.

Rick Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane South of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Rick rapidly intensified to a hurricane south of Mexico early on Saturday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Rick was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 101.5°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) south of Zihuatenajo, Mexico. Rick was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan De Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo and from Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Rick intensified rapidly during Friday night and it strengthened to a hurricane early on Saturday. A small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Rick. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Rick’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly. The circulation around Hurricane Rick was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Rick. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Rick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Rick will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Rick will likely continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Rick could strengthen to a major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane Rick will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 24 hours. A large upper level trough approaching the west coast of the U.S. will cause the high pressure system to weaken during the weekend. As the high pressure system weakens, the southern part of the upper level trough will steer Rick toward the north. On its anticipated track Hurricane Rick could approach the west coast of Mexico by later on Sunday. Rick could be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico. The Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are likely to be changed to warnings later today. Hurricane Rick could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guerrero and Michoacan on Sunday night and Monday.

TD 17E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rick, Mexico Issues Watches

Former Tropical Depression Seventeen-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Rick on Friday afternoon and the government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the coast. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 101.0°W which put it about 460 miles (745 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Rick was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Punta San Telmo, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo and from Zihuatenajo to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Seventeen-E strengthened on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Rick. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Rick. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upped level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Rick. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rick will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Rick will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Rick will continue to intensify steadily during the next 36 hours. Rick could strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Rick will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next few hours. A large upper level trough approaching the west coast of the U.S. will cause the high pressure system to weaken during the weekend. When the high pressure system weakens, the southern part of the upper level trough will turn Rick toward the north-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Rick could approach the west coast of Mexico by later on Sunday. Rick could be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico. The Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are likely to be changed to warnings on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E formed south of Mexico on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen-E was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 100.5°W which put it about 505 miles (810 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. The depression was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico exhibited more organization on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Seventeen-E. The circulation around Tropical Depression Seventeen-E was still organizing. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the depression. More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Seventeen-E is likely to intensify steadily during the next 36 hours. The depression is likely to intensify to a tropical storm later today and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next few hours. A large upper level trough approaching the west coast of the U.S. will cause the high pressure system to weaken during the weekend. When the high pressure system weakens, the southern part of the upper level trough will turn the tropical depression toward the north-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Seventeen-E could approach the west coast of Mexico by later on Sunday. The tropical depression could be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico. Watches could be issued for a portion of the coast later on Friday or on Saturday morning.

Tropical Storm Lowell Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Lowell formed south of Baja California on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 113.6°W which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lowell was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A scatterometer onboard a satellite detected winds to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) on the southeast side of former Tropical Depression Seventeen-E on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Lowell.  The circulation around Lowell was not well organized.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southwestern quadrant of the tropical storm.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Lowell consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) on the southern side of Lowell.  Winds on the northern side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

An upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Lowell.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were responsible for the stronger thunderstorms being in the southwestern quadrant of Lowell.  The moderate upper level winds also appeared to be tilting the top part of Tropical Storm Lowell toward the southwest of the circulation at the surface.

Tropical Storm Lowell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  If the upper level winds weaken, then Lowell could intensify during the next several days.  However, if the upper level winds remain at their current speed, then it will be difficult for the tropical storm to become more organized.  The wind shear is forecast to decrease slowly, which would allow Tropical Storm Lowell to strengthen gradually.

Tropical Storm Lowell will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high is forecast to steer Lowell toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lowell will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Low Pressure System Will Drop Heavy Rain on Southern Mexico

A tropical low pressure system designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E by the National Hurricane Center will drop heavy rain on parts of southern Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 93.4°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido.

A large low pressure system moved slowly from the western Caribbean Sea into the extreme Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Guatemala during the past few days.  The low pressure system dropped heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize.  Several smaller centers of circulation developed within the larger low pressure system on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms developed around one of the smaller centers west of Guatemala on Tuesday evening and the sustained wind speed increased to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop around the low pressure system.  A potential primary rainband appeared to be wrapping around the western and southern portions of the center of circulation.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for some intensification on Wednesday.  The low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  An upper level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  The low pressure system will be close to the coast of Mexico, which will also limit intensification.  The low pressure system could intensify while the center is over the warm water.  It is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.

A high pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the low pressure system could make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Barra de Tonala and Puerto Escondido within 24 hours.  It will bring gusty winds to that portion of the coast.  The low pressure system will drop heavy rain on parts of Chiapas and Oaxaca.  It could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Olivia Nears Hawaii

Tropical Storm Olivia moved closer to Hawaii on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Olivia was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 152.3°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) east of Kahului, Hawaii.  Olivia was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Oahu, Hawaii County, Maui County including Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe, and for Kauai County including Kauai and Niihau.

Tropical Storm Olivia was weakening as it neared Hawaii.  An upper level trough north of Hawaii was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing across the top of the circulation.  Those winds caused significant vertical wind shear and they blew the tops off thunderstorms near the center of circulations.  Bands near the center and in the western half of Tropical Storm Olivia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There were still a few taller thunderstorms in bands on the far eastern side of the circulation.

Since Tropical Storm Olivia consisted mostly of a circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it was being steered by the winds in the lower levels.  Olivia was moving south of the subtropical high over the central Pacific Ocean.  That high steered Tropical Storm Olivia quickly to the west on Tuesday and it will continue to do so.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Olivia will reach Hawaii on Wednesday.  Olivia will bring some gusty winds and it could drop locally heavy rain, especially where the wind rises over hills and mountains.

Hurricane Olivia Causes Tropical Storm Watches for Hawaii

The potential impacts of Hurricane Olivia caused the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Hawaii on Sunday night.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Oahu, Maui County including Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe, and Hawaii County.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Olivia was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 146.1°W which put it about 595 miles (960 km) east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Olivia was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Hurricane Olivia maintained its intensity and structure on Sunday.  A circular eye persisted at the center of circulation and a ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olivia.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Olivia will move through a less favorable environment during the next several days.  Olivia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a hurricane.  However, an upper level trough north of Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Olivia.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Hurricane Olivia could weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches Hawaii.

Hurricane Olivia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Central Pacific Ocean.  The high is forecast to strengthen and it will steer Olivia on a west-southwesterly track.  On its anticipated track Olivia could approach Hawaii late on Tuesday.  Olivia will bring gusty winds and it could cause power outages.  Locally heavy rain and the potential for flash floods are greater risks.

Hurricane Olivia Churns Toward Hawaii

Hurricane Olivia churned toward Hawaii on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Olivia was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 138.0°W which put it about 1110 miles (1790 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Olivia was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Hurricane Olivia weakened slowly on Saturday, but it still had a well organized circulation.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Olivia.  The rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation were stronger than the bands in the western half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Olivia were generating upper level divergence.

Hurricane Olivia will move through an environment that could allow it to remain a hurricane for several more days.  Olivia is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C, but it will move over slightly warmer water during the next several days.  An upper level trough north of Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they could cause Hurricane Olivia to weaken to a tropical storm early next week.

Hurricane Olivia will move south of a subtropical high over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Olivia toward the west during the next day or two.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen early next week and it will steer Olivia more toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Olivia could approach Hawaii on Tuesday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Norman moved north of Hawaii and weakened, while Tropical Depression Eighteen-E developed southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Norman was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 154.4°W which put it about 395 miles (630 km) northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Norman was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 115.9°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.