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Tropical Storm Debby Strengthens

Tropical Storm Debby strengthened over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 84.2°W which put the center about 155 miles (255 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida.  Debby was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Suwannee River, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge,  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Debby strengthened over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Debby’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Debby.  Bands in the western side of Debby consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Debby’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Debby continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern half of Debby’s circulation.  Winds in the western side of Debby were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Debby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Debby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The trough will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Debby’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Debby will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Debby is likely to intensify to a hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Debby will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Debby toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Debby will approach the coast of north Florida by Monday morning.

Tropical Storm Debby is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the north coast of Florida.  Debby will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Florida.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.  Tropical Storm Debby could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Aripeka, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.  A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Debby Forms North of Cuba

Tropical Storm Debby formed north of Cuba on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 83.2°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) west-southwest of Key West, Florida. Debby was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Suwannee River, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge,  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida.

Former Tropical Depression Four strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Debby.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Debby after it moved north of Cuba.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Debby.  Storm’s near the center of Debby’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Debby was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern half of Debby’s circulation.  Winds in the western side of Debby were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Debby Four will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Debby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Debby’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Debby will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Debby is likely to intensify slowly as it moves away from Cuba.  Tropical Storm Debby is likely to intensify more rapidly when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  Debby could strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Debby will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Debby toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Debby will approach the coast of north Florida on Monday.

Tropical Storm Debby will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Florida.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.  Tropical Storm Debby could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.3 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Aripeka, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 

Tropical Depression Four Forms South of Cuba

Tropical Depression Four formed south of Cuba on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Four was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 79.7°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south of Caibarien, Cuba and about 260 miles (415 km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida.  Tropical Depression Four was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Card Sound Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River, Florida.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed over the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba in a tropical wave previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Depression Four on Friday night.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Four.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Four will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Depression Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Four is likely to intensify slowly as long as the center of the depression is near Cuba. The tropical depression is likely to intensify more rapidly when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Four will moving around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Depression Four toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Four will move across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.  The tropical depression is likely to move toward the north during the weekend when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Depression Four is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Florida during the weekend.  Heavy rain could cause widespread flooding.  Tropical Depression Four could also cause a storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwannee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches Issued for Florida

The potential threat posed by a tropical wave over eastern Cuba prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for parts of Florida.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the tropical wave as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in order to issue the watches and warnings.  The tropical wave was previous designated as Invest 97L.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 76.6°W which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) east-southeast of Camaguey, Cuba and about 420 miles (675 km) southeast of Key West, Florida.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Card Sound Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Aripeka,, Florida. 

The tropical wave currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move into an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The tropical wave is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone as long as the center of the wave is over Cuba.  A tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form on Saturday when Potential Tropical Cyclone Four moves north of Cuba.  The system could strengthen to a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical wave is moving around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Four toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the tropical wave will move toward the Florida Keys.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to move toward the north during the weekend when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Florida during the weekend.  Heavy rain could cause widespread flooding.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four could also cause a storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

Cindy Weakens to a Tropical Wave

Former Tropical Storm Cindy weakened to a tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean south-southeast of Bermuda on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Wave Cindy was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 60.0°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Former Tropical Storm Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

An upper level trough over the western Atlantic Ocean produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of former Tropical Storm Cindy’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear blew the tops off of new thunderstorms that started to form near the center of circulation. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation around former Tropical Storm Cindy. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force were occurring about 70 miles (110 km) northeast of the center of circulation. Winds in the other parts of former Tropical Storm Cindy were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Former Tropical Storm Cindy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Cindy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough over the western Atlantic will cause strong vertical wind shear to continue for several more days. Former Tropical Storm Cindy could move into an area where there is less vertical wind shear in a couple of days. There is a slight chance that former Tropical Storm Cindy could strengthen when the wind shear decreases during the middle of the week.

Bret Weakens to a Tropical Wave North of Colombia

Former Tropical Storm Bret weakened to a tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Wave Bret was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 73.8°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) west-northwest of the Guajira Peninsula, Colombia. Bret was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Bret moved under the western part of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The upper level trough produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Bret’s circulation. A subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean produced strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The combination of northwesterly winds in the upper levels and easterly winds in the lower levels caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear prevented thunderstorms from persisting near the low level center of Bret’s circulation. The lack of thunderstorms near the center of circulation caused former Tropical Storm Bret to weaken.

The circulation around former Tropical Storm Bret still contained winds to tropical storm force in the northeastern quadrant of the system. Winds to tropical storm force were occurring in thunderstorms in bands about 115 miles (185 km) northeast of the center of Bret’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of former Tropical Storm Bret were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Former Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the strong vertical wind shear is forecast to continue. Former Tropical Storm Bret will continue to weaken during the next 36 hours as it moves quickly west toward Nicaragua.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Cindy was spinning east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 54.7°W which put it about 465 miles (750 km) east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. Tropical Storm Cindy is forecast to move into an area where there will be strong vertical wind shear. Cindy is forecast to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret Moves over Eastern Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Bret moved over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 64.7°W which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-northeast of Curacao. Bret was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret was maintaining its intensity as it moved over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. New thunderstorms developed near the low level center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Bret remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Bret’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwesterly winds in the upper level and the strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours. Bret could weaken to a tropical wave during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will pass north of Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Cindy strengthened east of the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 48.0°W which put it about 915 miles (1470 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Brings Wind and Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Bret brought gusty winds and rain to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) east of St. Vincent. Bret was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropical Storm Bret brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night. A weather station in St. Lucia reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). A weather station at Grantley Adams airport in Barbados reported a sustained wind speed of 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h).

The intensity of Tropical Storm Bret peaked on Thursday morning at close to hurricane intensity. After its intensity peaked in the morning, the portion of Bret’s circulation in the lower levels raced out ahead (to the west) of the parts of the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. The rapid movement of the circulation near the surface created strong vertical wind shear. The lower level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands the eastern part of Tropical Storm Brett. Those thunderstorms were occurring near the circulation center in the middle levels. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Bret’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwesterly winds in the upper level and the strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours. Bret could weaken to a tropical wave during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will move over the Caribbean Sea west of the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Bret will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines during the next few hours. Bands in the northern part of Bret’s circulation will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Martinique and Dominica. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Barbados will end on Friday when Tropical Storm Bret moves over the Caribbean Sea. .

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Four strengthened to Tropical Storm Cindy on Thursday evening halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 45.2°W which put it about 1110 miles (1785 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Nears Barbados

Tropical Storm Bret moved near Barbados on Thursday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 58.9°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) east-northeast of Barbados. Bret was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for St. Lucia.

The intensity of Tropical Storm Bret appeared to peak on Thursday morning. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Bret was close to hurricane intensity on Thursday morning. A microwave satellite image showed an eyelike feature in the middle levels of Tropical Storm Bret. After its intensity peaked in the morning, the portion of Bret’s circulation in the lower levels appeared to race out ahead (to the west) of the parts of the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere during Thursday. The rapid movement of the circulation near the surface was creating strong vertical wind shear. The lower level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands the eastern part of Tropical Storm Brett. Those thunderstorms were occurring near the circulation center in the middle levels.

The distribution of wind around Tropical Storm Bret remained asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Bret’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern part of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday afternoon. The center of Bret could pass close to St. Lucia on Thursday night. Tropical Storm Bret will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia. Bands in the northern part of Bret’s circulation will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Martinique and Dominica. Tropical Storm Bret could produce gusty winds and heavy rain over St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Four formed halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 42.9°W which put it about 1270 miles (2040 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Depression Four was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Bermuda Issues Hurricane Watch for Hurricane Earl

The government of Bermuda issued a Hurricane Watch on Wednesday afternoon because of the potential effects of Hurricane Earl. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 65.5°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) south of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Earl exhibited more organization on Thursday afternoon. An circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Earl’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a partial ring of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms surrounded the northern half of the eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the more organized core of Hurricane Earl. Storms near the center of Earl generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Earl increased in size on Thursday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Earl was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.5.

Hurricane Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Earl will intensify during the next 36 hours. After an inner core with a fully formed eye and eyewall develops, Earl could intensify rapidly. Hurricane Earl could strengthen to a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Hurricane Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will turn Hurricane Earl toward the northeast on Thursday. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Earl will pass southeast of Bermuda on Thursday evening. Bands in the western side of Hurricane Earl could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Bermuda.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle maintained hurricane intensity northwest of the Azores. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 44.9°N and longitude 34.9°W which put it about 625 miles (1010 km) northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.