Tag Archives: Melissa

Melissa Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Melissa strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Jamaica on Saturday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 75.2°W which put the center about 145 miles (230 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west-northwest at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

Former Tropical Storm Melissa strengthened to a hurricane over the Caribbean Sea southeast of Jamaica on Saturday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) formed at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Melissa increased on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level trough that is north of Hispaniola.  The upper level trough will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the winds will get weaker during the next 24 hours.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Melissa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Melissa is likely to intensify rapidly at times.  Melissa is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Melissa will move slowly toward Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa is likely to drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Storm Melissa Strengthens

Tropical Storm Melissa started to strengthen on Friday afternoon as it meandered over the Caribbean Sea southeast of Jamaica.  At 12:30 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 74.5°W which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the east-southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft determined that Tropical Storm Melissa had started to strengthen early on Friday afternoon.  The reconnaissance plane found stronger winds and a decreasing surface pressure in Tropical Storm Melissa.

Tropical Storm Melissa also looked like a stronger tropical storm on satellite images.  Stronger thunderstorms developed near the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Stronger thunderstorms also formed in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Melissa.  Bands in the western side of Melissa’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Melissa started to strengthen on Friday afternoon, the strongest winds were still occurring in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Melissa.  The winds in the western half of Melissa’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the south part of an upper level trough that is north of Hispaniola.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the winds will get weaker during the next 24 hours.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Melissa could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday afternoon.  Melissa could intensify to a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move slowly toward Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.

 

Melissa Prompts Hurricane Watch for Jamaica

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Melissa prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica on Thursday morning.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also issued for Jamaica.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 74.9°W which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa was showing indications of becoming more organized on Thursday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Melissa’s circulation.  More thunderstorms developed in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Melissa.  Bands in the western side of Melissa’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

Vertical wind shear caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa to continue to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Melissa.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Melissa’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear, but the winds will get weaker during the next 24 hours.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will decrease on Friday.  Tropical Storm Melissa could start to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will continue to move slowly toward Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa Stalls Southeast of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Melissa stalled over the Caribbean Sea southeast of Jamaica on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 74.3°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Melissa was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa stalled southeast of Jamaica as easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and westerly winds in the upper levels competed to push the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Melissa’s circulation.  Thunderstorms continued to develop in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Melissa.  Bands in the western side of Melissa’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

The vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Melissa.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Melissa’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move slowly toward Jamaica.

 

Tropical Storm Melissa Forms over Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Melissa formed over the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 71.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south of Port Au Prince, Haiti.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Melissa.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday morning.  Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Melissa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western half of Tropical Storm Melissa.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move closer to Haiti and Jamaica.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forms Southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Depression Fifteen formed southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 20.2°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A large, well developed low pressure system embedded in the northern end of a tropical wave moved over the Atlantic Ocean west of North Africa on Monday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to strengthen when the low moved over water and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fifteen.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression.  Storms closer to the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Tropical Depression Fifteen.  The circulation around the depression was quite large.  The diameter of the low level circulation was about 500 miles (800 km).

Tropical Depression Fifteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over North Africa.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next day or two.  Tropical Depression Fifteen is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nestor.

The ridge over North Africa will steer Tropical Depression Fifteen toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could reach the Cabo Verde Islands within 24 hours.  Since the depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm watches and/or warnings could be issued.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Melissa completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 41.0°N and longitude 51.4°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Melissa was moving toward the east at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Subtropical Storm Melissa Develops off Northeast U.S. Coast

Subtropical Storm Melissa developed off the northeast coast of the U.S. on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 38.5°N and longitude 69.6°W which put it about 190 miles (300 km) south of Nantucket, Massachusetts.  Melissa was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a large low pressure system off the northeast coast of the U.S. on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Melissa.  Melissa initially began as an extratropical cyclone along a slow moving cold front off the east coast of the U.S earlier this week.  The cold front moved east of the surface low pressure system and the surface low stalled underneath an upper level trough.  More showers and thunderstorms began to develop in bands and the low pressure system started to look more subtropical.

The circulation around Melissa was characteristic of a subtropical storm.  There was a well defined center of circulation visible on satellite images.  However, many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the northern portion of the circulation.  Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The circulation was drawing cooler, drier air into the western and southern parts of the subtropical storm.  The wind field around Subtropical Storm Melissa was large and asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 350 miles (565 km) from the center in the northeastern part of Melissa.  Tropical storm force winds only extended out 100 miles (160 km) to the southeast of the center of circulation.

The intensity of Subtropical Storm Melissa may not change much during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Melissa will remain under the middle of the upper level trough during the rest of Friday.  The winds are weak in the middle of the trough and there will not be much vertical wind shear.  Subtropical Storm Melissa will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24°C.  So, there will not be a lot of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  The upper level trough will move eastward on Saturday and westerly winds will blow toward the top of Melissa.  The westerly winds will cause significant vertical wind shear, which will start to weaken Subtropical Storm Melissa.

Since the winds are weak in the middle of the upper level trough, Subtropical Storm Melissa is unlikely to move much during the rest of Friday.  Stronger westerly winds will steer Melissa to the east during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Melissa is forecast to move away from the U.S. during the weekend.  The large circulation around Melissa will generate large waves which will affect the south coast of New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.  Coastal flooding could occur in some locations.