Tropical Storm Nock-ten formed near Yap on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nock-ten was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 138.4°E which put it about 85 miles (140 km) southeast of Yap. Nock-ten was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.
A distinct center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms near Yap and the system was named Tropical Storm Nock-ten. The circulation of Nock-ten is still organizing. A small well defined center exists at the core of the circulation. A band of thunderstorms is beginning to wrap around the center. Several additional bands of thunderstorms formed in the northern part of the circulation. Thunderstorms near the center are beginning to generate upper level divergence which is pumping mass out to the west of the center.
Tropical Storm Nock-ten will move through an environment that is moderately favorable for intensification. Nock-ten will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. An upper level ridge north of Nock-ten is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm. Those winds are preventing upper level divergence to east of Nock-ten. Those winds are also causing moderate vertical wind shear which is slowing the rate of intensification. When Nock-ten moves a little farther west, the vertical wind shear is expected to diminish and faster intensification could occur. Nock-ten could intensify into a typhoon during the next several days.
A subtropical ridge north of Nock-ten is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest. That general motion is expected to continue for another day or two. The ridge could strengthen during the weekend and it could turn Nock-ten more toward the west in a couple of days. On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Nock-ten could approach the Philippines in three or four days. Nock-ten could be a typhoon by the time it reaches the Philippines.