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Tropical Cyclone Vardah Reorganizes Over the Arabian Sea

After moving across southern India and weakening Tropical Cyclone Vardah began to reorganize over the eastern Arabian Sea on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located near latitude 11.0°N and longitude 68.0°E which put it about 1140 miles (1840 km) east of Baargaal, Somalia.  Vardah was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah retained a well organized low level circulation as it moved across southern India and into the eastern Arabian Sea.  However, almost all of the showers and thunderstorms dissipated as the cyclone crossed over land.  A few showers and thunderstorms began to redevelop about 24 hours ago.  There are now several rainbands that are spiraling around the circulation and stronger thunderstorms are forming in some of those bands.  The thunderstorms are beginning to produce upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Vardah will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Vardah should continue to redevelop during the next 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Vardah has been steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vardah will move across the Arabian Sea toward eastern Africa during the next several days.

Weaker Tropical Cyclone Megh Close to Landfall in Yemen

Drier air from the Arabian peninsula finally entered the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Megh and most of the convection weakened on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 47.0°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Aden (Adan), Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

As Tropical Cyclone Megh moved closer to the coast of Yemen, it began to draw in drier air from the Arabian peninsula.  As the drier air penetrated the circulation, it cut off the energy from the convection and most of the thunderstorms dissipated.  Without a continuous supply of new energy Megh weakened and the wind speeds decreased.  As the center of circulation approached the coast, friction over land increased low level convergence and new thunderstorms formed near the center.  Those storms are producing winds to tropical storm force over the Gulf of Aden.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering Megh toward the west-northwest.   Tropical Cyclone Megh will make landfall near Ahwar, Yemen in a few hours.  It is still capable of producing locally heavy rain and causing flash flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Megh Hits Socotra Island and Brushes Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Megh moved over Socotra Island, Yemen on Sunday and it passed near the northeast coast of Somalia.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 50.6°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east of Aden (Adan), Yemen and about 35 miles (55 km) north of Cape Guardafui, Somalia.  Megh was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Although Tropical Cyclone Megh weakened as it moved across Socotra Island, it remains a small, well organized storm.  Megh still has an eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Those storm are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all direction.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is over warm water and the upper level winds are light.  The only negative factors are the proximity to Somalia and drier air over the Arabian peninsula.  As long as the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh stays north of Somalia, it will likely retain most of its intensity.  When Megh starts to get closer to the coast of Yemen, it will begin to draw in some drier air and weaken more rapidly.  Vertical wind shear could also increase in 24 to 36 hours, which would further speed the weakening process.

A subtropical ridge has been steering Megh toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  After that time Megh will reach the western end of the ridge and start to move toward the northwest.  On its expected track, Tropical Cyclone Megh could approach the coast of Yemen on Tuesday.  It could still be the equivalent of a hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Megh may have caused significant damage on Socotra Island.  It will be capable of producing wind damage when it reaches Yemen, but heavy rain and flooding will be the greater risk.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Megh Nearing Socotra Island

Megh intensified rapidly Saturday into a dangerous tropical cyclone as it neared Socotra Island, Yemen.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east of Socotra Island, Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is the equivalent of a major hurricane even though it is a small storm.  Megh is a very symmetrical cyclone.  It has a five mile (8 km) wide eye which is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The convection in the core is generating upper level divergence which in pumping out mass.  Tropical storm force winds extend out 50 miles (80 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Megh will remain in a favorable environment until it reaches Socotra Island.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is vertical wind shear.  Megh could intensify further until it reaches Socotra.  It should weaken when the core of the circulation interacts with island.

A subtropical ridge north of Megh is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Megh will reach Socotra Island in a few hours.  it is capable of producing wind damage and flooding.  Since Tropical Cyclone Chapala recently caused damage on Socotra, the impact of Tropical Cyclone Megh could be significant.

Tropical Cyclone Megh Moving Slowly West Over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Megh moved slowly westward over the Arabian Sea on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 60.4°E which put it about 420 miles (680 km) east of Socotra Island, Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The convection around Tropical Cyclone Megh diminished earlier today, but more thunderstorms have formed near the center of circulation during the past few hours.  Megh has a well formed, symmetrical circulation with an eyelike feature at the center.  It is a small cyclone and tropical storm force winds only extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  The new thunderstorms near the center of circulation are starting to generate upper level divergence.

Aside from the possible drier air, the environment surrounding Tropical Cyclone Megh is favorable for intensification,  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The winds in the upper levels are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Now that thunderstorms are redeveloping near the core of the circulation, Tropical  Cyclone Megh should begin to intensify and it is still likely to reach hurricane intensity in a day or two.

A ridge north of Megh is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue during the weekend.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megh could approach Socotra Island, Yemen in about 36 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane at that time.  Given the prior damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Chapala, Megh could have a significant impact on Socotra Island.

Tropical Cyclone Megh Forms Over the Arabian Sea

A new tropical cyclone, designated with the name Megh, formed Thursday over the same portion of the Arabian Sea where Tropical Cyclone Chapala developed.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 63.0°E which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) east of Socotra Island, Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megh exhibited increased organization on Thursday.  A core of thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and a primary rainband spirals around the northern and western sides of the tropical cyclone.  The thunderstorms near the core of Megh are beginning to generate upper level divergence, especially toward the east.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is an environment favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level ridge north of Megh is generating light northeasterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone, but the vertical wind shear is modest.  Megh should continue to intensify and it could reach the equivalent of hurricane intensity in a day or two.

The ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Megh a little south of due west and that general steering motion is expected to continue for several days.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megh could approach Socotra Island, Yemen in 48 to 60 hours.  Since the outer portions of Tropical Cyclone Chapala caused damage on Socotra Island, a direct hit by Tropical Cyclone Megh could have a significant impact there.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Makes Landfall in Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Chapala made landfall in Yemen just west of Al Mukalla as the equivalent of a hurricane.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 48.7°E which put it 30 miles (50 km) south of Al Mukalla, Yemen.  Chapala was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala reached the western end of the ridge that was steering it toward the west and it turned north toward the coast of Yemen on Monday.  When Chapala reached the western end of the ridge, southerly winds in the upper levels generated vertical wind shear and the circulation of the tropical cyclone tilted toward the north.  In addition, as the core of the circulation neared the coast, it drew in drier air from the Arabian peninsula.  The combination of more wind shear and drier air started to weaken Chapala, but the tropical cyclone was still the equivalent of a hurricane when it made landfall.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Chapala will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast.  Although Chapala will weaken fairly quickly as it moves into the dry interior of the Arabian peninsula, the circulation will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash floods as the tropical cyclone spins down.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Poised to Enter Gulf of Aden

Tropical Cyclone Chapala continued to move steadily westward on Sunday and it was poised to enter the Gulf of Aden.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 52.2°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-southeast of Al Mukalla, Yemen.  Chapala was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Chapala is still a very well organized tropical cyclone and it is the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Chapala has a 25 mile (40 km) wide eye, which is surrounded by numerous thunderstorms.  Those storms are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out enough mass to balance the air flowing into the center near the surface.  The balance of inflow and outflow allowed Chapala to maintain its intensity on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28.5°C and the upper level winds are light.  There is little vertical wind shear and most environmental factors support the ability of Tropical Cyclone Chapala to maintain its intensity.  However, once Chapala enters the Gulf of Aden it will have very dry air to its north over the Arabian peninsula and dry air to its south over east Africa.  Chapala will remain a strong tropical cyclone as long as the dry air does not reach its core.  However, as Tropical Cyclone Chapala moves closer to the coast of Yemen, the drier air will probably cause it to start to weaken.

A ridge north of Chapala is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west.  Chapala will reach the western end of the ridge on Monday and the tropical cyclone will turn toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Chapala will make landfall on the coast of Yemen near Al Mukalla in 24 to 30 hours.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast.  Chapala is likely to dissipate quickly as it moves inland over the Arabian peninsula, but it could bring heavy rain and flash floods before it does so.

Strong Tropical Cyclone Chapala on Track for Landfall in Yemen

Strong Tropical Cyclone Chapala moved steadily westward on Saturday and it remains on track for a landfall in Yemen.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 56.0°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southeast of Salalah, Oman and about 465 miles (765 km) east of Al Mukalla, Yemen.  Chapala was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 135 m.p.h. (215 km) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Chapala continues to be a strong well organized tropical cyclone and it is the equivalent of a major hurricane.  It has a symmetrical circulation with a well formed eye inside a core of thunderstorms.  Multiple rainbands are rotation around the center of circulation.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala remains in a favorable environment.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  There is not much vertical wind shear and Chapala could maintain its intensity until it approaches the coast of Yemen.  When Chapala gets nearer the coast, it will start to pull in drier air from the Arabian peninsula.  As Chapala ingests the drier air, it will start to weaken.

A ridge north of Chapala is steering the tropical cyclone westward.  As Chapala nears the western end of the ridge, it will start to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chapala will approach the central coast of Yemen in 36 to 48 hours.  The core of Chapala will pass north of the island of Socotra on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Becomes Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chapala intensified rapidly on Friday and it became the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 59.9°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Chapala was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala is a very well organized tropical cyclone.  It has a well defined eye and a strong core of thunderstorms around the eye.  Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to fall rapidly.

Chapala is an environment favorable for tropical cyclones.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  However, a secondary eyewall may be developing and eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity for the next day or two.  When Chapala approaches the Arabian peninsula, it will start to pull in very dry air, and that will weaken the tropical cyclone even before it makes landfall.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chapala toward the west and that general steering motion is expected to continue for another 36 to 48 hours.  As Chapala reaches the western end of the ridge, it could turn more toward the northwest.  Tropical Cyclone Chapala could be approaching the coast of Yemen in 48 to 60 hours.