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Strong Tropical Cyclone Chapala on Track for Landfall in Yemen

Strong Tropical Cyclone Chapala moved steadily westward on Saturday and it remains on track for a landfall in Yemen.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 56.0°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southeast of Salalah, Oman and about 465 miles (765 km) east of Al Mukalla, Yemen.  Chapala was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 135 m.p.h. (215 km) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Chapala continues to be a strong well organized tropical cyclone and it is the equivalent of a major hurricane.  It has a symmetrical circulation with a well formed eye inside a core of thunderstorms.  Multiple rainbands are rotation around the center of circulation.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala remains in a favorable environment.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  There is not much vertical wind shear and Chapala could maintain its intensity until it approaches the coast of Yemen.  When Chapala gets nearer the coast, it will start to pull in drier air from the Arabian peninsula.  As Chapala ingests the drier air, it will start to weaken.

A ridge north of Chapala is steering the tropical cyclone westward.  As Chapala nears the western end of the ridge, it will start to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chapala will approach the central coast of Yemen in 36 to 48 hours.  The core of Chapala will pass north of the island of Socotra on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Becomes Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chapala intensified rapidly on Friday and it became the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 59.9°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Chapala was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala is a very well organized tropical cyclone.  It has a well defined eye and a strong core of thunderstorms around the eye.  Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to fall rapidly.

Chapala is an environment favorable for tropical cyclones.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  However, a secondary eyewall may be developing and eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity for the next day or two.  When Chapala approaches the Arabian peninsula, it will start to pull in very dry air, and that will weaken the tropical cyclone even before it makes landfall.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chapala toward the west and that general steering motion is expected to continue for another 36 to 48 hours.  As Chapala reaches the western end of the ridge, it could turn more toward the northwest.  Tropical Cyclone Chapala could be approaching the coast of Yemen in 48 to 60 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04A Organizes in the Arabian Sea

A center of circulation organized quickly within a broader area of thunderstorms over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone 04A.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04A was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 64.0°E which put it about 705 miles east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure 993 mb.

The organization of Tropical Cyclone 04A improved significantly on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped almost entirely around the center of circulation and there were indications on various satellite images that an eye could be forming.  Additional rainbands were beginning to form in the circulation outside the core.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence, especially on the northeast side of the tropical cyclone.

The environment is favorable for further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 04A is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Although there are strong upper level westerly winds north of the cyclone, the upper level winds over it are relatively light.  As a result there is not a lot of vertical wind shear over Tropical Cyclone 04A.  The cyclone is likely to intensify during the next several days and it could intensify rapidly.  It could attain hurricane intensity in a day or two and it could eventually become the equivalent of a major hurricane.

A ridge north of Tropical Cyclone 04A is steering it slowly toward the west-northwest.  The ridge is expected to continue steering the cyclone toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 04A could approach the coast of Oman and Yemen in four or five days.