Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Moves Slowly North over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy moved slowly toward the north over the Arabian Sea on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 66.9°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was asymmetrical on Friday morning. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Biparjoy and in bands in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. bands in the northern half of Biparjoy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There appeared to be some drier air in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in that part of Biparjoy. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of the circulation. In addition, Biparjoy has been moving slowly and the wind could mix cooler water to the surface of the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could strengthen during the next 24 hours unless the mixing of cooler water to the surface lowers the Sea Surface Temperature under the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Guchol Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Guchol strengthened to a typhoon on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Guchol was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Guchol strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Guchol. A circular eye was visible on satellite images at the center of Guchol’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core or Typhoon Guchol. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Guchol. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Guchol is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move toward the northeast later this week after it passes the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Typhoon Guchol could be between Minamidaitojima and Iwo To in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Churns over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was churning over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 66.2°E which put it about 670 miles (1085 km) southeast of Masirah Island. Biparjoy was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy churned slowly northward over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out25 miles (40 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Guchol Intensifies

Tropical Storm Guchol intensified over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 132.8°E which put it about 715 miles (1155 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Guchol intensified over the warm water in the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Wednesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Guchol’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Guchol. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Guchol.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will intensify during the next 36 hours. Guchol could strengthen to a typhoon within 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will move farther away from the Marianas. Guchol could be south of Minamidaitojima in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 66.3°E which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) southeast of Masirah Island. Biparjoy was moving toward the northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy rapidly intensified over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Biprarjoy. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Biparjoy could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Guchol Forms West of Marianas

Tropical Storm Guchol formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 114.6°N and longitude 134.6°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Guchol. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Guchol was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring bands in the southern half of Guchol’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Guchol.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will intensify during the next 36 hours. Guchol could strengthen to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will move farther away from the Marianas. Guchol could be south of Minamidaitojima in five days.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Arabian Sea

A tropical cyclone formed over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 66.0°E which put it about 755 miles (1220 km) southeast of Masirah Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the north at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A low pressure system over the Arabian Sea strengthened quickly into Tropical Cyclone 02A during Monday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped part way around the center of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 02A will intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 02A will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Arlene Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a tropical depression northwest of Cuba on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Arlene was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 85.1°W which put it about 145 miles (230 km) west-southwest of Dry Tortugas. Arlene was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico northwest of Cuba on Saturday morning. An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico produced westerly winds that blew across the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. In addition, drier air was pulled into the circulation around former Tropical Storm Arlene. The combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Arlene’s circulation to weaken. Most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Arlene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There were still a few thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Arlene.

Tropical Depression Arlene will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Arlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C.’ However, the southern part of the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds will keep causing the strong vertical wind shear. The drier air in the circulation around Arlene will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. The strong vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Depression Arlene to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Arlene will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will move south on Saturday and it will push Arlene toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Arlene will move north of Cuba by Saturday evening.

Tropical Depression Two Strengthens to Tropical Storm Arlene

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Arlene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Ft. Meyers, Florida. Arlene was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found sustained wind speeds to tropical storm force in the northeastern part of former Tropical Depression Two on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Arlene. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Arlene was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern quadrant of Arlene’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Arlene generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Arlene. The winds in the other parts of Arlene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arlene will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Arlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, Tropical Storm Arlene will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Drier air to the north and west of Tropical Storm Arlene will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the western part of Arlene. The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Storm Arlene to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Arlene will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will move south on Friday and it will push Tropical Storm Arlene toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Arlene will stay west of Florida. Arlene could move near the western end of Cuba by Saturday evening.

Tropical Depression Two Forms over Northeast Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Two formed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Two was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 86.6°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) west of St. Petersburg, Florida. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Surface observations from buoys in the Gulf of Mexico and data acquired by a U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane indicated that a low pressure system over the northeast Gulf of Mexico had formed into a tropical depression on Thursday afternoon. Tropical Depression Two had a broad low level center of circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms in the tropical depression was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern part of Tropical Depression Two. Bands in the western and southern parts of the tropical depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The surface center of Tropical Depression Two was slightly east of the axis of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. In addition, drier air was north and west of Tropical Depression Two. The drier air was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in the western part of the depression’s circulation.

Tropical Depression Two will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The drier air will also continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the western part of the tropical depression. If the vertical wind shear does not get any stronger, then the tropical depression could strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. On the other hand, if the wind shear increases, then the tropical depression could start to weaken.

Tropical Depression Two will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The steering currents will be weak during the next 12 hours and the tropical depression may not move much. The high pressure system will move south on Friday and it will start to push Tropical Depression Two toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Two will stay southwest of Florida. It could move near the western end of Cuba by Saturday night.