Tag Archives: Conson.18W

Tropical Storm Conson Develops Quickly near the Philippines

Tropical Storm Conson developed quickly near the Philippines on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Conson was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 126.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-southeast of Dolores, Philippines. Conson was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Conson organized quickly on Monday morning, The inner end of a primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation. A small circular eye was at the center of Conson on microwave satellite images. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Conson was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Conson.

Tropical Storm Conson will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Conson will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Conson is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours and it could strengthen to a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Conson will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Conson toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Conson will reach northeastern Samar in 12 hours. Conson could be a typhoon when it reaches Samar. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Samar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Conson will weaken when the center passes over northeastern Samar. Since the circulation of Tropical Storm Conson is small, it could weaken quickly over land. The center of Tropical Storm Conson could move back over water when it moves north of Samar. The circulation could strengthen again when that happens. Conson could reach southeastern Luzon in a day or so.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific, Tropical Depression 19W formed north of Yap. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 19W was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 138.1°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) north of Yap. The tropical depression was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb. Tropical Depression 19W is forecast to move toward the west-northwest and to strengthen.