Tag Archives: Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Fabien formed over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 4.7°S and longitude 81.7°E which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east-northeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fabien. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien exhibited more organization on Sunday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fabien’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will intensity during the next 48 hours. Fabien is forecast to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could pass near Diego Garcia in two or three days. Fabien is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passes near Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Strengthens near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened near the coast of Mozambique on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 37.1°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to intensify on Thursday evening as it moved closer to the coast of Mozambique. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Freddy’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming again at the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 10 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 10 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will reach the coast of Mozambique in 10 hours. The center of Freddy will make landfall between Vilankulo and Pomene. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall. Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast between Vilankulo and Pomene.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved farther away from Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 20.3°S and longitude 70.9°E which put it about 870 miles (1405 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.4°S and longitude 38.8°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened again over warm water in the Mozambique Channel on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Freddy’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 12 hours. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique in 15 hours. The center of Freddy will make landfall near Vilankulo. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall. Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast near Vilankulo.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala moved farther away from Diego Garcia. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 705 miles (1135 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.1°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy weakened to the equivalent of a tropical depression during its passage across Madagascar. The former eye and eyewall dissipated during the trip across Madagascar. New thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Freddy’s circulation after the center moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the tropical cyclone again.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique in a little over 24 hours. The center of Freddy could make landfall between Vilankulo and Mambone near Macovane. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala developed south of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 72.9°E which put it about 605 miles (975 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) south of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane as it passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.8.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be northeast of Rodrigues in 48 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mauritius in 72 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Still Moving West

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still moving westward over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 78.8°E which put it about 720 miles (1165 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to move toward the west over the South Indian Ocean. A smallcircular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 30.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.6.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small inner core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be northeast of Rodrigues in three days. Freddy could approach Mauritius in four days and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 31.5°S and longitude 67.7°E which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to near Threshold for Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to near the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 84.2°E which put it about 1000 miles (1615 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified over the South Indian Ocean during Tuesday night. Freddy was near the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.7.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could forms. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in three days. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani continued to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 27.2°S and longitude 69.2°E which put it about 635 miles (1025 km) southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Churns Westward

Tropical Cyclone Freddy churned westward over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 89.3°E which put it about 1315 miles (2120 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to intensify again when it moved into a more favorable environment on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours, but the wind shear is not likely to be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in four or five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani started a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of the Cocos Islands on Sunday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 94.1°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy weakened a little as it passed south of the Cocos Islands on Sunday night. Freddy was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge produced stronger easterly winds that blew toward the top of Freddy’s circulation during Sunday night. Those winds caused more vertical wind shear and the shear caused Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken a little. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Freddy’s circulation to become more asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Some of the bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. Freddy could move into a region were the upper level winds are weaker later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move farther away from the Cocos Islands. Freddy could be south of Diego Garcia by the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani was passing east of Rodrigues. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) east of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Cocos Islands on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 102.5°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds occurred in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.5.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours. Since the circulation around Freddy is small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tropical Cyclone to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be south of Cocos Islands in 36 hours. The core of Freddy and the strongest winds will pass south of Cocos Islands. Bands on the northern edge of Freddy’s circulation could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Cocos Islands.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani moved south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 77.8°E which put it about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.